FTR reports December North American Class 8 truck/tractor preliminary net orders skyrocketed to their highest level since October 2022, up 108% month-over-month (m/m) and 21% year-over-year (y/y) to 42,200 units, well above the 10-year December average of 29,351.
“Despite greater policy clarity, freight demand remains soft, fleet profitability is constrained, and capital spending discipline persists amid rising costs. As a result, December’s order strength likely reflects the release of deferred orders along with the early stages of a modest EPA 2027 NOx pre-buy rather than a broader demand inflection. A more durable recovery in equipment demand will require a sustained improvement in underlying economic and freight market conditions,” says Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles.
Key takeaways:
· While both on-highway and vocational markets saw similar percentage gains relative to the prior month, on-highway made up the bulk of the y/y increase in orders. Despite the strong performance in December, cumulative 2026-season net orders from September through December were down 22% y/y, reflecting broad market headwinds. Class 8 orders have totaled 22,178 units for the past 12 months.
· A key driver of the strong December order performance was improved policy visibility on both tariffs and emissions regulations following clarifications in October and November. The Section 232 tariffs on Class 3-8 trucks implemented on Nov. 1 turned out to be less onerous than many had feared, and regulatory uncertainty has eased.
· The Environmental Protection Agency is expected to propose revisions to the 2027 NOx rule in March or April that would retain the 2027 implementation date and the 0.035 g/hp-hr standard while eliminating the costly extended warranty requirements and modifying other compliance provisions.
