Why Truckers Need to Take Better Ownership of Fuel Performance

As 2026 begins, the U.S. transportation sector faces a year of shifting regulations. While federal climate guidelines continue to evolve, many states and companies are proceeding with their own emissions initiatives. With more than 15 years of greenhouse gas science and standards informing these decisions, fleets are preparing for a landscape where requirements may differ by region but won’t disappear.

Even if the EPA’s Phase 3 greenhouse gas standards for 2027 heavy-duty vehicles change at the federal level, the countdown to major emissions restrictions continues. Shipping and logistics companies are already adapting. The International Maritime Organization, for example, recently approved a global “Net-Zero Framework,” including mandatory emissions limits and a greenhouse gas pricing mechanism for vessels starting in 2027. A signal that the broader transport sector is tightening expectations across modes.

Shippers are responding accordingly: 37% now select carriers with stronger sustainability commitments, giving diesel-heavy fleets less time to modernize.

As regulations evolve and customers prioritize cleaner freight, fuel becomes more than a line item on a P&L. Nearly half of carriers are already tracking Scope 1 transportation emissions, and two in five are optimizing their route planning to cut fuel use. No matter which way you look at it, fuel consumption will be one of the most defining issues for carriers this year.

Fuel is always volatile

Regardless of the latest federal carbon-cutting ambitions, fuel’s price per gallon swings with global markets, geopolitics, supply chain disruptions, and local taxes. Logistics teams that can predict the market can plan accordingly.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a drop in crude oil prices through 2026, which should push down retail diesel and gasoline costs. However, that downward pressure is partially offset by rising refiner profit margins.

Known as “crack spreads,” this means refiners make more on each barrel processed into diesel, which cushions how much pump prices fall. The EIA specifically forecasts diesel crack spreads to rise, which could keep wholesale and retail prices more elevated, even if crude costs drop.

When fuel markets swing beyond anyone’s control, logistics stability comes from mastering what is controllable. Companies optimize fuel burn by designing routes that minimize mileage, idling, and inefficient detours.

Fleet maintenance and driver behavior also play a role. Logistics providers use telematics and vehicle-fuel-optimization models to understand how speed and idling habits affect consumption. For instance, a machine-learning model found that optimizing driving behavior could reduce fuel consumption by 12–15% in industrial fleets. By optimizing the predictable, fleet owners can balance the unpredictable.

Regulatory pressure is increasing

The United States still has a long way to go in zero-emission technology, charging infrastructure, and grid capacity to meet ambitious post-2030 targets. But many jurisdictions have already signaled they’ll enforce tighter rules on heavy-transport emissions and fuel use. Truckers that move slowly may find themselves facing new restrictions or reputational risks with shippers who expect cleaner operations.

For instance, California officials strongly oppose the EPA’s proposed rollback of the endangerment finding, and some legal and climate experts say the state could step in and regulate greenhouse gases on its own. This opens doors for the region to potentially write its own vehicle-emissions rules for cars and trucks.

New Mexico’s leadership has equally pushed back hard, with its Environment Secretary calling the rollback a dismissal of decades of climate science, and saying the state will continue to enforce its own emissions reductions and clean-energy policies regardless of federal action.

What this means for fleet owners is that companies operating in or through these states cannot simply rely on federal rules potentially being loosened. They may still face strict emissions standards or regulatory risk at the state level, and it’s likely that other jurisdictions will follow.

Customer and market expectations

Each year, more and more customers are putting their money and contracts into their sustainability values. According to Breakthrough’s 2025 State of Transportation report, 37% of shippers are choosing carriers based on their sustainability credentials, and over half (52%) are tracking their Scope 1 transportation emissions.

That makes fuel efficiency a key differentiator going into 2026. As cost pressures mount, shippers are balancing emissions goals and bottom-line discipline, driving demand for carriers that can reliably deliver greener freight without inflating their costs.

For trucking companies, this means two things:

1. Operational transparency matters more now. Clients want to see data on fuel usage and emissions, not just marketing promises.
   
2. Efficiency investments pay off on both sides. When carriers optimize routes or upgrade to more efficient equipment, they're not only cutting fuel costs but also strengthening their pitch to sustainability-first customers. The Breakthrough report found that 67% of carriers say cost savings are a primary driver of their sustainability initiatives.

Fuel efficiency is the result of many controllable factors, including routing, load planning, vehicle maintenance, and how drivers operate on the road. When optimized together, these variables significantly reduce both operating costs and environmental impact.

As state policies harden and shippers demand proof of cleaner operations, fuel consumption becomes a risk for fleets that ignore it and a competitive asset for those that don’t. The companies that take ownership of their fuel performance now will be the ones that can navigate tightening standards without disruption, and win business while others scramble to catch up.