Copper and nickel prices are projected to roughly double over the next decade as demand from construction, electrification, and clean energy technologies outpaces supply growth, with supply deficits averaging around 10% of demand by 2035.
- Supply-demand gap: Copper and nickel supply expected to grow only 1-1.5% annually, while demand grows about 1.8% yearly, creating significant shortages by 2035.
- Clean energy impact: Clean energy technologies alone could account for approximately 35% of global copper and nickel demand by 2035, driven by electrification and battery manufacturing.
- Refined copper deficit: Coface projects a refined copper deficit of 1.5-6.5 million tons by 2035, representing about 11% of projected demand.
- Trade barriers surge: Global import and export restrictions on minerals have more than tripled to 1,138 by end of 2025, up from 357 a decade earlier.
- China's dominance: China controls approximately 70% of refining capacity for 19 of 20 key minerals, limiting supply alternatives globally.
Prices for copper and nickel could roughly double over the next decade as demand from construction, electrification and clean energy outpaces what mines and refiners can deliver, according to Back to the Future (Cycle) from Coface.
The report projects that aluminum, copper and nickel will face supply deficits averaging around 10% of demand by 2035.
"U.S. tariffs are part of a much larger shift in how metals are traded," says Marcos Carias, North America economist at Coface. "Governments have been restricting metals trade for years, and the U.S. measures add to that pressure at a time when supply is already falling behind demand. For manufacturers in the U.S., Canada and Mexico, that means planning for higher metal costs over the long term instead of waiting for a trade deal to bring prices back down."
Key takeaways:
- Over the next decade, supply is expected to grow just 0.4% a year for aluminum, 1% for copper and 1.5% for nickel. Demand for all three is projected to grow about 1.8% a year, and faster under a net zero scenario.
- Clean energy technologies alone could account for about 35% of global copper and nickel demand by 2035.
- Close to three-quarters of global copper demand now goes to electrification, and the rapid buildout of data centers is adding to it.
- Coface projects a refined copper deficit of 1.5-6.5 million tons by 2035, about 11% of projected demand. Under a net-zero scenario, the gap could reach 17%.
- Under a net-zero scenario, the refined nickel market could face a deficit of roughly 35% of projected demand, driven largely by battery manufacturing.
- A deficit of 5-15 million tons, or about 10% of demand, reflects limits on low-cost electricity and smelting capacity rather than a lack of raw material.
- Both have less exposure to energy transition demand, so price increases are expected to be more moderate.
- Trade barriers have more than tripled. By the end of 2025, 1,138 import and export restrictions on minerals were in force, up from 357 a decade earlier.
- China holds around 70% of refining capacity for 19 of 20 key minerals and produces more than half of the world's steel, aluminum and refined copper.
- Fewer than 1% of exploration projects become working mines, and development timelines of 15-20 years limit how fast output can respond to higher prices.
