Peak season is extending longer than expected across Asia due to strong AI, semiconductor, and year-end retail demand, while typhoons, port congestion, and blank sailings are keeping freight capacity tight and rates elevated through October 2026.
- Global Manufacturing PMI reached 52.3 in August, a three-month high, with new export orders increasing for the first time in four months.
- Airfreight remains tight across Northeast Asia, particularly Taiwan and South Korea, with some Southeast Asia services requiring bookings up to two weeks in advance.
- Port congestion persists in Shanghai with berthing waits exceeding five days, while Yantian faces container availability pressure through October.
- Ocean rates diverge by route: Asia-U.S. rates are rising amid blank sailings, while Asia-Europe rates are falling as Suez Canal transits resume.
- Trade uncertainty continues with the U.S.-China trade truce extended to January 10, 2027, while Section 301 investigations into excess capacity remain ongoing.
Peak season is running longer than expected, as outlined in Dimerco Express Group’s October 2026 Asia Pacific Freight Report.
In fact, AI, semiconductor and year-end retail demand continue to support air and ocean volumes, while typhoon backlogs, port congestion and short-notice capacity cuts are keeping space tight across several key Asian origins.
At the same time, Asia-Europe ocean rates are moving in the opposite direction as more services return through the Suez Canal.
“Everyone expected October to mark the start of the slowdown, but the cargo hasn't stopped and the overflow is still rolling forward,” says Ted Chen, director, ocean freight, global sales and marketing at Dimerco Express Group. “With carriers blanking sailings at short notice, the real risk isn't port congestion, it's space disappearing before you've booked it.”
Key takeaways:
· The Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 in August from 52.1 in July, reaching a three-month high and remaining above 50 for the 13th consecutive month. Output and new orders accelerated, while new export orders increased for the first time in four months. The Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam led regional manufacturing growth, with Japan, Taiwan, the US and India also above the global average.
· Airfreight remains tight across several Northeast Asian markets. Taiwan continues to see strong demand for AI servers, semiconductors, high-performance computing equipment and electronic components, keeping rates under upward pressure to the United States and across intra-Asia lanes. South Korea is also seeing tighter conditions around the Chuseok period, with some Southeast Asia services from Incheon requiring bookings up to two weeks in advance.
· Conditions in China are more mixed. Pre-holiday and e-commerce activity is tightening some regional routes, while U.S. and Europe capacity remains more balanced in several origins. Dimerco expects clearer tariff direction and persistent ocean congestion to potentially push more cargo into air as Q4 progresses.
· Lingering typhoon delays, the Mid-Autumn Festival and Golden Week are pushing vessel schedule disruption into October, while demand has not slowed as quickly as expected. Retail and e-commerce inventory building is keeping U.S. imports elevated, and selective blank sailings are maintaining high transpacific utilization and firm-to-rising rates.
· The impact is particularly visible in China. Shanghai is expected to remain heavily congested into mid-to-late October, with berthing waits above five days and on-time performance falling sharply. Yantian is also facing container availability pressure as intake restrictions limit empty releases.
· Across Southeast Asia, India and Australia, air capacity to the United States remains tight from most origins. Singapore faces backlog conditions, Thailand is dealing with capacity reductions and flooding-related delays at Bangkok, while India is entering its festive season with both air and ocean space constrained to Europe and the United States.
· Ocean freight is also tightening around Golden Week as blank sailings reduce available space. Asia-U.S. rates are rising across several markets, although Europe presents a more mixed picture. Vietnam and parts of Malaysia are seeing softer conditions as additional services return via Suez.
· Asia-Europe ocean rates are continuing to fall as carriers resume Suez transits, creating a different rate environment from the transpacific. However, German port strikes and low water levels on the Rhine continue to pressure inland movements, while transatlantic ocean capacity remains tight with rising rates.
· Trade policy also remains a planning variable. The U.S.-China trade truce has been extended to Jan. 10, 2027, providing some near-term certainty, while ongoing U.S. Section 301 investigations into structural excess capacity cover several major Asia-Pacific manufacturing economies and sectors.
