Failing to preserve pro-manufacturing tax policies from the 2017 tax reform will cost the U.S. economy nearly 6 million jobs and would cost the U.S. economy more than $1 trillion, according to a study released by the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM).
And, the manufacturing industry will bear the brunt of this economic damage if Congress does not act swiftly in 2025.
“The time to act is now. Millions of American workers are depending on the manufacturing sector to continue driving America forward,” says NAM president and CEO Jay Timmons. “Pro-growth tax policies from President Trump’s 2017 tax reforms were rocket fuel for manufacturers and made the U.S. economy more competitive on a global scale. Manufacturers kept our promises to create jobs, raise wages and benefits and invest in our community. By acting now, policymakers can choose economic growth over economic disaster and protect American livelihoods.
“This data—6 million American jobs at stake—makes crystal clear that preserving tax reform should be one of the first acts of the new Congress and the new administration. If Congress delays, manufacturers will be forced to delay investment and job creation decisions due to the uncertain outlook. In 2017, Congress passed the landmark Tax Cuts and Jobs Act late in the year, meaning that manufacturers’ investment decisions based on the law could not bear fruit until 2018 at the earliest. For example, manufacturing capital spending grew 4.5% and 5.7% in 2018 and 2019, respectively, compared to the meager 1.4% growth in 2017. In addition, manufacturers added 267,000 new jobs in 2018, the best year for job creation in manufacturing in 21 years,” adds Timmons.
“This time around, we can’t afford to wait: with crucial TCJA provisions having expired in recent years, the economy is already backsliding. Following the expiration of immediate R&D expensing in 2022, R&D growth in the EU surpassed the U.S. for the first time in nearly a decade—and China’s R&D growth tripled our own. Congress and President Trump should work expeditiously to stimulate activity this year by acting urgently to give manufacturers the tax certainty they need to plan for long-term, job-creating projects,” he adds.
“Small manufacturers are disproportionately impacted by tax increases,” says Ketchie president and owner Courtney Silver, outgoing chair of the NAM’s Small and Medium Manufacturers Group. “We’re already struggling thanks to the expiration of immediate R&D expensing, full expensing for capital equipment purchases and interest deductibility for job-creating projects. Congress should reverse these expirations and prevent even more devastating changes to the pass-through deduction, the estate tax and more from taking effect next year.”
Key takeaways:
- Nationwide economic damage includes 5.9 million lost jobs; $540 billion reduction in employee compensation; and $1.1 trillion shortfall in U.S. GDP.
- The manufacturing impact entails 1.137 million manufacturing jobs; $126 billion in manufacturing worker compensation; and $284 billion manufacturing GDP reduction.
- Nearly nine out of 10 respondents agree that Congress should act before the end of 2025 to prevent scheduled tax increases on manufacturers. The 20% pass-through deduction, individual tax rates and the estate tax exemption threshold are scheduled to expire or become less competitive at the end of 2025, as are important aspects of tax reform’s international tax system. These tax increases will build on damaging tax changes impacting R&D, capital investments and business loans that took effect in 2022 and 2023.
- In 2018, the first year after tax reform’s enactment, manufacturing experienced the best year for job creation in 21 years and the best year for wage growth in 15 years; similarly, manufacturing capital spending grew 4.5% and 5.7% in 2018 and 2019, respectively.
