Tariffs could have a more detrimental impact on the global economy, with 84% of U.S. businesses believing there’s a higher risk of a global recession in 2025 due to tariff shockwaves, according to Creditsafe’s Tariff Risks in the Supply Chain study.
“Our study suggests that the implications of tariff hikes will be far-reaching. Many U.S. businesses will find themselves struggling with rising costs, cash flow challenges, supply chain instability and even trade fraud. The key is to make sure businesses have robust and reliable financial and supplier risk data available so they can properly vet suppliers to make sure they have strong financial health and can adequately complete all orders in full and on time. This critical step could be key to maintaining strong customer-supplier relationships at a time when the tariffs are causing uncertainty and fears of losing business,” says Steve Carpenter, chief operating officer for North America at Creditsafe.
Key takeaways:
· 72% of the respondents confirmed they currently have imports on hold due to the tariff uncertainty. On top of this, 37% of respondents plan to reduce the quantity of goods they import from China, while 28% plan to import fewer goods from Mexico and 28% are cutting back on imports from Canada. And in Mexico, officials have reported that steel exports had been cut in half in May 2025.
- Tariffs have already driven 51% of U.S. businesses to pay their suppliers late. Of this 51%, 27% are paying their suppliers slightly later than usual and 24% are paying their suppliers significantly later than usual.
- 73% of the respondents are worried (to some degree) that higher import duties will drive an uptick in forged documents, mislabeled goods or duplicate payments. In response, nearly half (47%) of the respondents plan to be more diligent about verifying the legitimacy of suppliers they use in the next 12 months.
- Nearly half (48%) of the respondents confirmed they’ve increased their inventory buys. Of that 48%, 34% of the businesses have already increased their inventory buys by up to 25% and another 11% of businesses are increasing their buys by an additional 26-50%.
