Highly skilled, senior-level technology and professional services personnel are faring better than generalists or entry-level workers, regardless of work model, according to Toptal Insights’ State of the High-Skilled Work Market study.
“The talent market is undergoing a structural shift as organizations redefine how work gets done, finding a balance between AI and human judgment, and between remote flexibility and in-person collaboration,” says Erik Stettler, Toptal’s chief economist and the author of Toptal’s High-skilled Job Report for Q4 2025. “This transition is creating real friction between talent supply and demand, and some trends may seem contradictory, such as hiring growth alongside elevated layoffs, or higher demand for senior talent alongside limited pathways for new entrants. But these divergent trends reflect a common reality: Companies are still experimenting, validating ROI, and rebuilding teams around new technology and new ways of working. This turbulence has been challenging, but organizations that build optionality through disciplined experimentation and individuals who combine technical fluency with contextual judgment and strategic insight will be positioned to lead in the emerging equilibrium.”
Key takeaways:
· Despite large companies announcing full-time return-to-office mandates, demand for experienced remote and hybrid technology and professional services professionals remained robust, surging 19.8% YoY.
· AI adoption continued to be a defining force in the Q4 2025 labor market, reshaping both demand patterns and the distribution of opportunity across experience levels.
· Demand for data science experts remained among the strongest of any field in the analysis, with a 32% YoY increase in market strength when comparing Q4 2025 to Q4 2024. When looking at full-year data (as opposed to comparing quarters), there was a 10.4% increase in market strength for 2025 vs. 2024.
· Similarly, developers, marketing experts, and product managers posted strong YoY market strength scores (all with growth of 30% or higher for Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2025), underscoring where organizations are investing as AI moves from experimentation to scaled deployment.
- Global tech layoffs increased 3% QoQ in Q4 2025.
- New job postings for all positions and levels of experience remained soft across the United States and most other large economies with comparable data in Q4 2025.
- Germany, Australia, Ireland, and France saw declines ranging from 0.6% to 3.5%.
- The UK, United States, and Canada each posted single-digit increases: 1.5%, 2.1%, and 5.8%, respectively.
- Job listings in the eurozone decreased 1.3% QoQ.
- Job growth for all U.S. roles is projected to decline moderately in Q1 2026.
- Job growth for U.S. professional services roles is projected to decline slightly in Q1 2026.
- Job growth for U.S. information services (technology) roles is projected to increase in Q1 2026.
