AI Demand and Supply Disruptions to Reshape Global Freight Markets

AI and semiconductor shipments continue to create capacity pressure at key Asian origins, while typhoons, port congestion and routing constraints are supporting ocean freight rates even as broader demand cools, according to Dimerco Express Group’s September Asia Pacific Freight Report.

Global manufacturing remains in expansion territory, with the Global Manufacturing PMI at 52.1 in July, marking a 12th consecutive month above 50.

Taiwan led the regional manufacturing picture at 55.1, while Japan, Thailand, India, South Korea and Vietnam also remained above the global average.

“The split isn't by lane any more, it's by commodity. AI out of Taiwan fills aircraft while everything else drifts, and Europe still hasn't replaced the e-commerce base it lost in July,” says Kathy Liu, VP, global sales and marketing, Dimerco Express Group.

Key takeaways:

●       AI and semiconductor exports are keeping air capacity tight from Taiwan and South Korea.

●       Typhoon-related disruptions at major Chinese ports are supporting ocean rates despite cooling demand.

●       Southeast Asia is entering Q4 peak-season conditions, with tighter space and rising rates on many Europe and North America lanes.

●       Asia-Europe air freight remains comparatively soft following changes to European e-commerce de minimis rules.

●       Panama Canal restrictions, cautious Suez routings and new trade compliance requirements are adding uncertainty for shippers.

●       Technology cargo remains one of the clearest sources of freight demand.

●       Taiwan air capacity is tight across all major trade lanes as AI servers, high-performance computing equipment and advanced semiconductors absorb available space. Expect rates to continue rising on Taiwan-U.S. routes ahead of the fourth-quarter peak, while Europe-bound capacity is also constrained.

●       South Korea is experiencing similar pressure, with Asia-U.S. load factors running near 90% as AI and semiconductor cargo becomes the primary capacity driver.

●       Ex-China volumes into the United States remain soft, intra-Asia traffic is below the same period last year, and Asia-Europe air demand remains subdued following the July removal of the EU de minimis exemption for e-commerce parcels.

●       Ocean freight is being driven less by demand growth and more by supply disruption.

●       Typhoons affected Shanghai, Ningbo, Yantian and Hong Kong at different times, reducing effective capacity and creating congestion expected to continue into September. In East China, Dimerco estimates roughly 400,000 TEU were awaiting clearance following a near three-day shutdown, with vessel waits reaching 3-8 days in Shanghai and 2-4 days in Ningbo.

●       Panama Canal draft restrictions beginning Sept. 3 add another variable for U.S.-bound cargo, while carriers remain cautious about returning services to the Suez and Red Sea corridors.

●       Air capacity remains tight across Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore, while India faces backlog conditions on Europe and U.S. West Coast services. Ocean rates are also rising across many Southeast Asia-Europe and North America lanes as vessel utilization increases and carriers introduce peak-season and bunker surcharges.