In 2026, carbon emissions will shape supply chain decisions alongside cost and traditional risks like operational disruptions, energy volatility and shifting trade conditions. After a decade of incremental progress, emissions are becoming a key operational variable, not just a compliance requirement.
As organizations respond to tariff uncertainty, fluctuating energy costs and turbulent geopolitical conditions, they’re examining their supply networks more closely. This review goes beyond price and delivery to looking at how suppliers use energy, how exposed they are to fuel volatility and how resilient their operations are in regions affected by climate or policy shifts. Since emissions are tied to many of these same factors, carbon management will become part of everyday procurement decisions even without regulatory pressure.
Research from MIT found that 85% of companies are maintaining or increasing their sustainability efforts. This continued momentum is driven mainly by long-term business priorities, leadership expectations and the growing recognition that sustainability is tied to resilience and competitive edge.
Within that broader picture, Scope 3 emissions stand out because they’re both the largest and most difficult part of a company’s footprint to measure. They include all indirect emissions across a company’s value chain, from supplier operations and transportation to product use and end-of-life treatment. The MIT data shows that Scope 3 accounts for about 75% of firm emissions, yet 70% of companies don’t have enough supplier data to calculate it accurately. As a result, better emissions information is becoming necessary for understanding real supply chain performance.
In the next year, more companies will begin asking suppliers for consistent, verifiable emissions data. Low carbon requirements are showing up more often in contracts, which means that suppliers that can provide clear, accurate information will be better positioned to win business. Steady improvements in lifecycle analysis and carbon accounting will help companies better understand the emissions tied to specific products and processes.
The new supply chain scrutiny
The RSM Supply Chain Special Report found that 85% of organizations feel prepared or somewhat prepared to handle potential tariff changes, mainly because many have already begun reviewing their supplier exposure and cost structure. Emissions data enters the conversation because it helps explain differences in supplier performance and long-term risk.
Tariffs also highlight a significant weakness in spend-based Scope 3 calculations. When prices rise due to tariffs, calculated emissions rise too, even though actual emissions may not change. This creates an inaccurate view of the company’s footprint. Moving to supplier-specific emissions data, calculated on non-spend-related variables like units or weight, will provide more accurate information on where improvements are possible and impactful. It also helps companies compare sourcing regions in a more balanced way.
Some organizations consider reshoring as a response to tariff pressure, but the path isn’t always simple. Certain industries, such as automotive and semiconductor manufacturing, require significant investment and long development cycles for new domestic capacity. Even when production moves closer to home, the regional energy mix can influence emissions in ways that offset transportation savings. Without reliable supplier data, companies risk making decisions that don’t actually reduce their carbon footprint.
AI enters the carbon data gap
AI is beginning to help companies address the data challenges that have slowed sustainability work. Half of North American companies still track emissions using spreadsheets. This manual approach can make it difficult to collect data consistently, track supplier changes, and maintain transparent and auditable records. As a result, some companies struggle to build accurate inventories or scale their reporting.
AI tools are helping automate tasks like collecting utility data, drafting reports and estimating supplier emissions when primary data is missing. Recent findings from Optera show that nearly half of sustainability professionals surveyed are already using AI in some capacity, whether through full integration or early experimentation. The rest have at least begun having internal discussions about how AI could support their workflows.
As data becomes more organized and reliable, AI will play a larger role in modeling future scenarios and identifying the most practical steps toward decarbonization. While companies are still cautious about relying on AI for complex decisions, they’re getting more comfortable using it to glean insights and reduce the time spent on repetitive work.
The 2030 crunch
Most major businesses have set reduction targets for 2030 as the widely adopted first meaningful checkpoint on the road to net-zero commitments. For many, those goals were set in 2020 or earlier, when supply chain visibility was more limited and data systems were less robust. Now that we’re more than halfway to 2030, these businesses must evaluate their progress.
Companies can no longer focus solely on measuring emissions. They must act now on the data they have, even if that data isn’t perfect. One of the challenges has been the tendency to wait for complete or flawless information, especially in Scope 3, where supplier information is often incomplete. Holding off until every gap is closed only slows momentum. The more practical approach is to start with the best available data, take action where the signals are clear and fill in the gaps over time while staying transparent about how the numbers are calculated and refined.
At the same time, new reporting requirements are raising expectations for accuracy. In California, new climate disclosure laws taking effect in 2026 will require large companies operating in the state to report their full emissions and climate-related financial risks. And many large organizations with a presence in Europe must disclose both how sustainability issues affect their business and how their activities affect people and the environment under the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD). These international and state-level requirements underscore the need for more consistent supplier-level emissions data at a moment when U.S. federal rules remain uncertain.
Over the next few years, decarbonization will shift from a collection of individual initiatives to a defining factor in how companies design, operate and govern their supply chains. As supplier data becomes more available and analytical tools more sophisticated, carbon visibility will influence choices about materials, partners and production models as directly as cost and lead time do today. Enhancing supplier engagement and data management processes will be essential for reducing exposure to climate, operational and market risks as businesses adapt to the low-carbon economy.
