Crude Mystery: Where Did 800,000 Barrels of Oil Go?

The oversupply driving crude prices to decade lows could be smaller than estimated and prices could rebound faster

The Wall Street Journal
Oil rallied Monday following the IEA’s projection that shale production is poised to fall this year by about 600,000 barrels a day, and by 200,000 barrels a day in 2017. U.S. crude rose 6.2 percent to $31.48 a barrel. Oil has fallen by about two-thirds since 2014.
Oil rallied Monday following the IEA’s projection that shale production is poised to fall this year by about 600,000 barrels a day, and by 200,000 barrels a day in 2017. U.S. crude rose 6.2 percent to $31.48 a barrel. Oil has fallen by about two-thirds since 2014.

March 18, 2016—There is mystery at the heart of the oversupplied global oil market: missing barrels of crude. Last year, there were 800,000 barrels of oil a day unaccounted for by the International Energy Agency, the energy monitor that puts together data on crude supply and demand. Where these barrels ended up, or if they even existed, is key to an oil market that remains under pressure from the glut in crude, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Some analysts say the barrels may be in China. Others believe the barrels were created by flawed accounting and they don’t actually exist. If they don’t exist, then the oversupply that has driven crude prices to decade lows could be much smaller than estimated and prices could rebound faster.

Whatever the answer, the discrepancy underscores how oil prices flip around based on data that investors are often unsure of.

Barrels have gone missing before, but last year, the tally of unaccounted-for oil grew to its highest level in 17 years. At a time when the issue of oversupply dominates the oil industry, this matters.

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