In July, global hiring dropped by 20% while job openings rose by 21%, according to BambooHR platform data. On the surface, this signals a labor market in stasis, but underneath, the hiring ecosystem is undergoing a profound transformation.
“We’re in a phase of cautious optimism: the number of advertised job openings suggests underlying demand, but actual hiring and turnover are lagging, reflecting a labor market holding its breath, waiting for clarity,” says Brandon Welch, senior director, talent acquisition, BambooHR.
Key takeaways:
· In July, U.S. hiring dropped 23% month-over-month and 21% year-over-year, even as job openings rose 23% from June and 20% year-over-year. Globally, hiring declined by 20% while job openings rose 21% month-over-month.
● Global hiring fell 20%, while job openings jumped 21%.
● Turnover dipped slightly worldwide, with the United States following the same pattern.
● By industry, hiring dropped for everyone, but restaurant, food, and beverage led in both hires and openings. Non-profits saw the highest turnover, while technology recorded the lowest hiring and turnover.
● By region, North America and Latin America had the highest hiring rates, while Europe had the fewest job openings.
● By company size, small businesses hired the most employees and experienced the most turnover, while large organizations reported the smallest share of job openings.
· In July, hiring and turnover decreased, while job openings increased for the second month in a row. Turnover decreased 5% globally and in the United States month-over-month. Non-profits saw the highest turnover rate (2.8%) and the sharpest decrease in hiring (41%).
· 44% of HR managers report that new hires have quit within their first month on the job in the past year.
· 37% of HR pros say candidates have accepted offers and never showed up in the past year. 86% of those HR teams say no-shows have eaten into recruitment resources.
● 35% of HR leaders say competition for top talent has increased since going remote.
· More than half (51%) of HR managers have seen applicants misrepresent their qualifications or experience. While 37% of recruiters believe most candidates are honest, 50% remain skeptical.
● One in four (25%) HR leaders say they’ve experienced more ghosting by candidates after initial interviews, where a candidate fails to respond to follow-ups. More than one-third (35%) say candidate misrepresentation overall has increased with remote hiring.
● Nearly one in three (29%) HR managers say they’ve rescinded job offers because candidates used AI during interviews. The issue isn’t AI itself, but how it’s used: thoughtful support tools can help candidates show up more confidently, while fully AI-generated responses raise red flags about authenticity.
· Bias remains a top concern. A quarter (25%) of HR leaders worry that AI could reinforce bias in hiring, while 44% see it as a potential tool for eliminating it.
· Nearly half of hiring managers (48%) are now using AI to help manage high application volumes.
· Over half (58%) of hiring managers now use AI to help predict a candidate’s long-term success.
· 22% of HR professionals believe AI will ultimately help them make better hiring decisions as long as it’s used intentionally and in concert with human judgment.
