Incidents like the closure and reported mining of the Strait of Hormuz are the latest in a series of recent disruptions to have impacted shipping. They signal a transition toward a “new maritime order" defined by escalating security risks along strategic shipping corridors, the disruption of established trade routes, persistent uncertainty, higher risk premiums, and a greater strategic emphasis on resilience over pure cost efficiency.
In addition, traditional risks for the shipping industry remain a major concern, although the numbers of total vessel losses and incidents have continued to decline in recent years. Machinery damage or failure and fires are among the main loss drivers in this regard, leading to significant economic and insured losses.
“Our analysis shows the shipping industry has made significant improvements in maritime safety in recent years. However, it has also undergone a fundamental transformation, from decades of relative stability, defined by steady trade flows and largely predictable operating conditions to becoming increasingly complex and volatile. The Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure is just the latest in a series of severe interruptions to hit shipowners and cargo operators. Resilience, geopolitics, and efficiency must be balanced in an increasingly unpredictable world, where the cost of uncertainty is reshaping the shipping industry,” says Thomas Lillelund, CEO of Allianz Commercial.
In fact, Allianz’s latest Safety and Shipping Review shows that there have been more than 900 total losses reported over the past decade (vessels over 100GT). Between 2016 and the end of 2020, there were 555, an average of 111 per year. This number declined to 350 between 2021 and the end of 2025, an average of 70 (37% down on the previous five-year period), reflecting the positive effect of an increased focus on safety measures over time – 43 total losses have been reported in 2025, with more than 30 of these vessels over 500GT.
Key takeaways:
· Data shows that around 1,150 cargo-carrying vessels (over 100GT*) with an estimated vessel and cargo value of approximately $125 billion, a volume of 29 million GT, and as many as 20,000 seafarers are in the Persian Gulf waiting to resume operations following recent diplomatic breakthroughs.
· Around the world, the number of shipping incidents declined over the past year by around 16% (2,818 in 2025 compared to 3,353 in 2024). The East Mediterranean and Black Sea region saw the highest number (622), followed by the British Isles (619), which is also the location of the most incidents over the past decade.
· Machinery damage or failure was the major cause of shipping incidents globally, accounting for over half (1,505), followed by vessel collision (260). Fires on large vessels, including container ships and car carriers, remain a worry. There were more than 200 incidents on large vessels reported during 2025, down from 2024, but still the second highest total over the past decade, with at least nine total losses reported.
· The increasing size of vessels is also driving a trend for a rise in general average claims, where the shipowner and cargo interests share losses or expenditure to save the whole venture in an emergency.
“We are seeing growing uncertainty around shipping routes. Any type of event – a conflict, pandemic or a grounded vessel blocking a key port or shipping canal – can potentially cause a major disruption to shipping and supply chains. The events in the Middle East have been more impactful than many would have expected. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz sets a dangerous precedent and raises questions around the long-term future of this and other critical chokepoints. What is becoming clear is that we have to pay a price for uncertainty, shifting from ‘just-in-time’ to ‘just-in-case’ supply chains, and prioritizing resilience over cost efficiency,” says Captain Rahul Khanna, global head of marine risk consulting at Allianz Commercial.
“Insurance markets react quickly to crises, but the real challenge for companies is understanding how risks are interconnected. That’s why resilience and risk management are becoming just as important as insurance coverage. The shipping industry is facing turbulent times, not only from geopolitical instability, but also from traditional hull and machinery risks, where we see claims costs continue to rise, as well as from decarbonization and fleet renewal challenges. Our role as an insurer is to support our clients as both a risk carrier and a resilience partner to mitigate risks before they become a damaging loss event,” says Justus Heinrich, global product leader marine hull at Allianz Commercial.
