AI demand for servers and semiconductors is tightening peak season freight capacity across Asia Pacific, with airfreight load factors reaching 90% on Asia-U.S. lanes and rising rates across Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, and India, while e-commerce shipments have largely been replaced as the primary capacity driver.
- Global Manufacturing PMI reached 52.2 in June, marking 11 consecutive months of expansion, with strong performance in Taiwan (55.2), Japan (54.8), India (54.2), and the United States (53.9).
- AI and semiconductor shipments have replaced e-commerce as the primary capacity driver, with Asia-U.S. load factors reaching approximately 90%.
- Airfreight pressure is severe in Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, and India, with tight capacity and rising rates to Asia, Europe, and both U.S. coasts.
- Ocean freight from Southeast Asia is strengthening with tight capacity and rising rates on Europe and North America routes, with carriers introducing peak-season surcharges.
- Transpacific rates are declining from July highs as the tariff-driven frontloading rush fades, though elevated fuel costs and geopolitical risks may prevent further reductions.
The Global Manufacturing PMI reached 52.2 in June, marking an 11th consecutive month of expansion, although growth eased from May’s 50-month high of 52.7. Meanwhile, manufacturing remained strong in several key markets, including Taiwan at 55.2, Japan at 54.8, India at 54.2 and the United States at 53.9, according to Dimerco Express Group’s August 2026 Asia Pacific Freight Report.
“What we’re seeing is a market split in two. AI demand out of Taiwan just keeps climbing, while the e-commerce base that carried Europe is gone with the de minimis change,” says Kathy Liu, VP, global sales and marketing at Dimerco Express Group.
Key takeaways:
· Taiwan airfreight capacity remains tight with rising rates to Asia and both U.S. coasts, driven by continued demand for AI servers, semiconductors and other high-tech products. Europe-bound capacity is more balanced, with stable rates.
· South Korea is seeing similar airfreight pressure. Capacity is tight to Asia and the United States, while rates are rising across all major corridors. Dimerco reports that load factors on Asia-U.S. lanes have reached approximately 90%, with AI and semiconductor shipments replacing e-commerce as the primary capacity driver.
· Greater China presents a softer picture. Air capacity from North China and Hong Kong to the United States is soft, with rates falling, while South China has ample capacity and stable pricing. Ocean rates from China to the United States are also trending downward as the earlier tariff-driven cargo rush fades.
· Thailand remains one of the region’s tightest airfreight markets, with capacity tight and rates rising across Asia, Europe and both U.S. coasts. Singapore is experiencing backlog conditions to Europe, while Malaysia’s KUL and PEN gateways remain tight on Asia and U.S.-bound lanes.
· India also faces rising airfreight pressure, with tight capacity to Europe and North America. Australia runs counter to the regional trend, with soft capacity and stable air rates across all major lanes.
· Ocean freight from Southeast Asia is strengthening as peak-season demand builds. Malaysia, Indonesia and India are seeing tight capacity and rising rates on several Europe and North America routes. Carriers are also introducing peak-season surcharges and general rate increases as vessel utilization rises.
· The report shows that the frontloading wave ahead of U.S. tariff deadlines has passed its peak. Transpacific rates are declining from July highs, even as seasonal retail replenishment keeps vessel space tight at major gateways.
· Elevated fuel expenses, potential Panama Canal surcharges and Middle East routing risks may prevent total shipping costs from falling in line with base freight rates.
· European airfreight to Asia is soft with stable rates following changes to the EU’s de minimis exemption. However, air rates from the Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom to both U.S. coasts are rising.
· The ocean market is moving in the opposite direction. Transatlantic capacity is at backlog levels from all three European markets, with rising rates and elevated rollover risk caused by vessel bunching in Rotterdam and infrastructure constraints in Hamburg.
· North America is also experiencing peak-season pressure. Airfreight is at backlog levels from Chicago to Asia and Europe, while New York-to-Europe capacity is classified as serious. Ocean capacity from Los Angeles is in backlog to both Asia and Europe, while New York-to-Europe space is also at serious levels.
· Southern Mexico remains another pressure point, with ocean capacity to Europe and the US East Coast classified as serious and rates rising.
· China-Europe rail remains an alternative, with transit times ranging from 16-27 days. However, capacity varies significantly by route, with Chengdu-Tilburg space critically limited and more flexible spot opportunities available from Chongqing.
