Article Summary
High energy prices triggered by geopolitical tensions have reduced global transportation and logistics growth forecasts from 3.4% to 2.5% in 2026, with air transport hit hardest as jet fuel prices surged over 95% worldwide.
- Air transport growth forecast slashed from 4.3% to 1.4%, with Middle East passenger flows expected to contract by 38% due to Gulf conflict disruptions.
- Jet fuel prices surged over 95% globally, forcing airlines to cut flights and compress margins while air freight demand remains strong for time-sensitive e-commerce deliveries.
- U.S. freight sector faces multiple headwinds including tariff uncertainty, fuel costs up 50%, labor shortages, and weakening trade with Canada and Mexico under USMCA.
- Land transport growth limited to 0.8% in 2026 due to weak industrial activity, soft consumer spending, and oversupply in trucking capacity constraining pricing power.
- Emerging markets in Asia Pacific, Africa, and South America expected to drive global growth, particularly China and India with heavy infrastructure investment.
Before the outbreak of the war in the Gulf, Atradius data projected global transportation and logistics output to increase by 3.4% in 2026. However, that forecast has been revised downward to 2.5%.
That’s because the global economic growth is slowing this year as high energy prices affect consumer sentiment and household purchasing power, and transport and logistics is extremely oil-intensive relative to other sectors.
“The main constraint is likely to be shipping, insurance, and operational confidence rather than underlying oil production capacity. Risks over the implementation and enforceability over the U.S.-Iran agreement and potential disagreements on longer term-issues mean oil and commodity markets will probably remain volatile in the coming weeks,” the study says.
Key takeaways:
· Air transport is the sub-sector most affected by the Gulf conflict, with the 2026 growth forecast revised down from 4.3% to 1.4%. Expect passenger flows across the Middle East to contract by 38% this year, a massive decline for a region that in past years has seen significant increases in both direct inbound travel and flights connecting Asia and Europe.
· Due to the major surge in jet fuel prices (up over 95% across the world) airlines are cutting flights.
· Expect greater demand for warehouse storage facilities. At the same time the air freight segment is benefiting from high demand for time-sensitive delivery of goods and growing e-commerce.
· Expect emerging markets in Asia Pacific, Africa, and South America to drive global transportation and logistics growth. This is particularly true for China and India, two of the world’s most populous countries investing heavily in infrastructure and transport networks.
· The U.S. transportation and logistics industry is navigating a complex environment. After increasing 1.6% in 2025, expect sector output to remain modest this year, growing 1.3%. Slowing trade growth, tariff-related uncertainty and softer import demand weigh on freight volumes, while higher fuel, insurance and compliance costs continue to squeeze margins across road, air and ocean freight businesses.
· U.S. port throughput growth will flatten in 2026, as tariff-related front-loading unwinds and trade policy uncertainty persists. An effective tariff rate of close to 10% continues to weigh on transpacific trade flows, suppressing near-term import demand. Additionally, higher freight costs and geopolitical disruptions further cap volumes.
· Land transport is expected to grow only 0.8% in 2026, with the sub-sector constrained by weak demand due to a more sluggish industrial activity and softer consumer spending. Additional issues are tightening capacity and rising cost pressures.
· Weaker trade activity with Canada and Mexico is impacting trucking, which plays a vital role in cross-border trade under the USMCA framework. At the same time, oversupply in trucking persists after COVID-era capacity expansion, constraining pricing and utilization rates.
· Labor shortages are contributing to delays and rising costs, and the restrictive immigration policy could exacerbate this issue. At the same time, fuel prices (up about 50% as of May 2026 due to the U.S.-Iran conflict) alongside higher insurance and regulatory costs, are increasing operating expenses and pushing up rates. In 2027 land transport is forecast to increase 2.8% as gasoline price increases should recede.
· U.S. air transport output is forecast to decline by 0.1% in 2026 after growing 3.1% last year. Rising fuel costs will increase air freight rates and volatility, squeezing margins and limiting capacity growth.
· In the mid-term, government investment in infrastructure improvement should benefit the sector by promoting greater supply chain efficiency, reducing costs, and stimulating demand for transportation and logistics services. Additionally, sector growth will be supported by rising U.S. energy exports and reshoring initiatives under the Trump administration.
