RXO’s proprietary Curve truckload market forecast indicates a sustained year-over-year increase in truckload rates in the first quarter. However, the rate of this growth decelerated when compared to the fourth quarter.
“The market calmed throughout the first quarter, which we expected given typical seasonality,” says Corey Klujsza, VP of pricing and procurement at RXO. “The real question is, will we see sustained momentum when it comes to rate increases as we get deeper into the busier summer shipping season? Regardless, carriers are under tremendous cost pressure from prolonged low rates, and though freight demand may not spike, there is still potential for a tighter capacity environment later in the year.”
“Shippers have had to contend with a tremendous amount of uncertainty throughout the first quarter and into the second. They’re employing many different strategies in response. They’re also deciding whether to increase inventory and whether there will be enough demand to warrant that inventory build-up. While we’re operating in a very fluid and uncertain environment, de-escalating trade tensions provide shippers with an opportunity to strategically increase inventory and plan for the second half of the year,” adds Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO.
Key takeaways:
- Spot rates increased 9.1% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, slightly less than the 11.6% reading in the fourth quarter of 2024.
- After initial volatility in January from post-holiday shipping and weather events, truckload capacity and spot rates receded to their pre-peak season baseline.
- Looking ahead, typical summer shipping trends should drive some incremental spot market volatility in the second quarter.
