Pre-Tariff Frontloading Led to Demand Surge in Electronics Supply Chain Trends: Study

Manufacturer demand for electronics components typically peaks in the second half of the year due to Christmas, New Year’s, and new product launches. But new intelligence from Supplyframe’s Commodity IQ reveals that component demand was anything but typical in 2025, when pre-tariff frontloading earlier in the year led to a demand surge, followed by a swift mid-year decline, and expected record lows this November and December.

“This new Commodity IQ data provides further proof that our unpredictable world is turning typically reliable trends on their heads,” said Supplyframe CEO and founder Steve Flagg. “It follows our earlier 2025 finding that electronics supply chain disruption due to the new tariff regime and related behaviors even outpaced what we all experienced during the pandemic.”

Key takeaways:

·        Demand across interconnects, passives, and semiconductors (not including AI GPUs) peaked in May 2025, dropped precipitously in June, saw a smaller spike in July, and has been decreasing or flat ever since. In Q3, interconnects declined by 7.9%, while passives went down 8.2%, and semiconductors dropped 9.7%. Commodity IQ indicates all three commodity groups will fall to four-year lows in December.

·        These major shifts in demand and stock created ripple effects, impacting lead times and pricing.

·        Lead times peaked in May 2025, then normalized due to declining demand in the second half. Commodity IQ intelligence indicates lead times will continue to decline in Q4, with passives and semiconductors dropping 13.4% and 5.3%, respectively, and interconnects declining 2.8%.

·        Pricing for these components has been flat or down, with the most significant changes occurring April through August. Pricing for interconnects, passives, and semiconductors is expected to remain mostly flat or down in Q4. However, if the U.S. presidential administration moves forward with imposing tariffs on semiconductor imports, that could affect prices.