The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index indicated an accelerated reduction in global manufacturers’ demand for inputs (raw materials, components and commodities) in April, signaling a broad-based contraction in purchasing activity by region.
“The first blows of the tariff war have landed on global manufacturers. Stockpiling is accelerating at a concerning rate and the first signs of manufacturers anticipating slower demand and supply shortages have emerged,” says John Piatek, VP, consulting GEP.
Key takeaways:
· April’s drop in buying across global manufacturers was the sharpest of 2025 to date—specifically in North America and to a lesser extent Asia—as manufacturers scale back in anticipation of weakening future demand as a direct result of tariffs.
· North American manufacturers increased inventory buffers in April, warehousing front-loaded Q1 purchases in response to rising tariff concerns and a renewed focus on supply chain resilience.
· Spare capacity across Asian supply chains increased significantly in April as factory slowdowns were evident in many of the region’s major markets, led by China, Taiwan and South Korea.
· In Europe, there were further signs that the continent’s industrial downturn was cooling. Supply chain capacity went underutilized to the smallest degree in 10 months, reflecting growth in Germany and France, though risks remain if global trade conditions worsen.
· The UK once again recorded significant manufacturing weakness, with supplier activity down at a rate, which has rarely been surpassed in 20 years of data availability.
