As global shipping markets begin showing signs of stabilization following months of geopolitical disruption, freight forwarders may be entering a new phase of commercial pressure, according to OntegosCloud.
"There's a common assumption that when disruption declines, profitability improves," says Oliver Gritz, founder and CEO. "In reality, some of the greatest pressure on margins can emerge during the transition from volatility to stability. For example, a customer may expect freight costs to fall as soon as geopolitical tensions ease and insurance markets begin to stabilize. However, the forwarder may still be operating with elevated insurance premiums, higher fuel prices, disruption-related contingencies, repositioning costs and contractual commitments negotiated during a more volatile period. When customer expectations adjust faster than operating costs, the result is often margin compression rather than margin recovery."
Key takeaways:
· Industry attention has increasingly shifted toward the prospect of reduced disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and a more stable operating environment in the second half of 2026.
· However, many freight forwarders may be underestimating the challenges that often emerge during periods of recovery.
· Customer expectations are often among the first things to normalize during periods of recovery. Procurement teams begin seeking lower transportation costs, temporary surcharges come under greater scrutiny and competitive pricing pressure intensifies.
· The challenge is that many underlying cost structures take significantly longer to adjust.
· Insurance costs, network inefficiencies, contractual commitments and working capital pressures often remain embedded within forwarding operations long after market sentiment improves.
· There are four commercial challenges likely to shape the second half of 2026.
Margin compression, as customer expectations adjust more quickly than operating costs.
Growing need for profitability visibility. During H1, forwarders focused heavily on operational visibility and disruption management. In H2, organizations may increasingly need visibility into profitability at a shipment, customer and service level in order to make effective commercial decisions.
Revenue recovery. Billing complexity introduced during periods of disruption, including surcharges, operational exceptions and customer-specific arrangements, often remains embedded within processes long after conditions improve, creating ongoing risks around revenue leakage and cost recovery.
Cash recovery is expected to lag behind operational recovery. Outstanding receivables, unresolved disputes and working capital pressures accumulated during H1 are likely to continue affecting financial performance well into the second half of the year.
