Fiserv, Inc.’s Fiserv Small Business Index indicates that seasonal shifts by consumers and harsh winter storms cooled small business sales to start the year.
“In January, small businesses faced headwinds as consumers rebalanced their spending following a busy holiday season, and winter weather kept many at home during the latter half of the month,” says Prasanna Dhore, chief data officer, Fiserv. “As a result, restaurants, hotels and several retail categories saw the sharp slowdowns in sales, while select service-based businesses posted strong sales gains to start the year.”
Key takeaways:
· The seasonally adjusted Index declined 1 point to 143. Year-over-year sales grew (+0.7%), but month-over-month sales slipped (-0.5%).
· With winter storms impacting much of the country in late January, consumer foot traffic saw its sharpest year-over-year decline (-2.0%) since mid-2022; foot traffic also dropped (-0.8%) month over month.
· Discretionary sales fell year-over-year (‑0.4%) and month-over-month (-0.7%), driven by foot traffic declines (‑2.4% year over year; -1.1% month over month). Essential sales remained strong year over year (+2.2%) but were flat month over month.
· Small business retail sales were essentially flat year over year and month-over-month. Retail foot traffic rose, suggesting consumers remain active but have become increasingly selective. Core retail (which includes grocery, clothing and furniture) delivered the most gains (+1.5%) year-over-year, while non‑core retail (gas, motor parts and building materials) declined (‑2.7%) year over year.
· Restaurant sales fell (-1.8%) year-over-year, driven by significant foot traffic declines (‑3.6%) compared to 2025. Limited‑service restaurants posted the largest sales declines, dropping (‑3.4%) year-over-year alongside steep traffic losses (‑5.0%). Average ticket sizes rose (+1.6%) year-over-year, offering only a partial offset. Full‑service dining also softened, though less severely.
