The WOW Supply Chain Activity Index reached 43.7 in August, its highest level since February 2023, driven primarily by increased trailer deployment as companies add capacity for the first time since March. While this represents a significant rebound from July's decline, the index remains in contraction territory and one strong month does not yet confirm a sustained recovery.
- The WOW Supply Chain Activity Index climbed to 43.7 in August, up 7.2 points from 36.4 and the strongest reading in over three years
- The Deployment Ratio accounted for 6 of the 7.2-point gain, with dry van on-rents exceeding off-rents for the first time since March
- The index remains in the Contraction zone (30-45 range) and has not yet crossed into Neutral territory above 45
- Mixed signals from other data: Cass Freight Index shipments rose and LMI Transportation Prices firmed, but ISM Manufacturing PMI declined and warehousing utilization fell
- Experts warn that one month doesn't make a trend; a second reading at or above 43 in September would confirm the recovery
The September index recorded an August data reading of 43.7, up 7.2 points from the previous reading of 36.4 and the highest level since February 2023, according to Warehouse on Wheels’ WOW Supply Chain Activity Index.
The gain reversed July's sharp decline and lifted the index 10.3 points above its January cycle low of 33.4. WOW's proprietary Deployment Ratio drove most of that rise, going from 0.75 to 1.18 as dry van on-rents outpaced dry van off-rents for the first time since March. The eight public data series added only about 1.2 points combined. The reading remains inside the Contraction zone, where it has been since early 2023.
"Our trailer data showed positive movement before the macro data did," says John Brooks, CEO of Warehouse on Wheels. "Dry van on-rents beat dry van off-rents in August for the first time since March, and that shows up in our yards a month before it reaches the other data points. This means the market is willing to add capacity again, but only capacity it can hand back, which is where every recovery starts. It's important to note that one month doesn't make a turn, so we're watching September."
Key takeaways:
· The Deployment Ratio accounted for 6 of August's 7.2-point gain, far more than any public series contributed, an indication that trailer demand turned before the broader indicators registered it.
· The 43.7 reading falls between 30-45, the Contraction zone, and sits at the top of that band rather than crossing into Neutral territory above 45.
· Cass Freight Index shipments rose and LMI Transportation Prices firmed to 90, but ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.6 and LMI Warehousing Utilization fell from 66.1 to 59.6. Warehouses reported themselves less full in August even as trailer deployment climbed.
· The index is averaging 39.6 across the first eight months of 2026, and one month above that average is not a trend. A second reading at or above 43 next month would confirm the turn, while a slide back into the high 30s would mark this as a one-month spike.
