Truckload Market Tightens as Supply Chain Disruption Risks Increase

The U.S. truckload market is entering the peak of hurricane season with considerably less slack than in recent years. While the National Weather Service is predicting a below-normal 2026 hurricane season for the United States, with 3-6 hurricanes forecast, any significant storm impacting a large metropolitan area could be a meaningful disruption to a tight truckload marketplace.

What’s more, the availability of drivers continues to be affected by English language enforcement, increased scrutiny of non-domiciled CDL holders, and other regulatory moves related to immigration policy.

At the same time, carriers are navigating uncertainty tied to trade policy, diesel fuel costs, and geopolitical events.

While capacity remains available in most markets today, the margin for absorbing disruption has narrowed, increasing the likelihood that localized events can create impacts that ripple across the broader transportation network, as outlined in recent data presented by C.H. Robinson.

Key takeaways:

·        Major storms impacting large population centers can create weeks or even months of elevated freight demand as essential goods, building materials, and recovery supplies move into the damaged area. These shifts can attract trucks from neighboring markets, reducing capacity availability outside the immediate impact zone. For the flatbed market, the impact often extends well past the storm itself, as rebuilding and infrastructure repair efforts generate sustained demand for construction materials and project-related freight in the weeks and months that follow.

·        Since July, spot rates have mostly trended in line with expectations, allowing C.H. Robinson’s 2026 dry van spot-rate forecast to remain unchanged.

·        Heading into the second half of the year, many shippers are beginning the planning process for 2027. One key consideration is what phase the market will be in. The truckload market is rather cyclical. Rates rise, reach a peak then decline once trucking supply outpaces demand. With an oversupply of carriers, rates stabilize and eventually bottom out. This cycle of four phases—expansion, peak, contraction, and trough—have occurred time after time.

·        The market now sits in the expansion phase, but shippers should consider what this will look like in 2027. Each phase tends to last 9-12 months, with the exception of the most recent trough from 2023 to 2025. Historical timing suggests that rates in 2027 will primarily be in the peak phase of the cycle, where rates are up year over year, but with a slowing magnitude of change.

·        The dry van cost-per-mile forecast remains at +34% year-over-year.

·        The refrigerated van cost-per-mile forecast has decreased to +33% year-over-year.

·        Route-guide depth remained flat at a historically low level from 2022-2025. Beginning in late November 2025, the first signs of a changing market showed up as route-guide depth surpassed 1.3 for the first time in years. Since then, route guides have remained challenged due to decreasing capacity.

·        In July, route-guide depth across all North America shipments was 1.41, which was improved compared to the previous month of 1.45. From a mileage perspective, long hauls of more than 600 miles had a route-guide depth of 1.65 in July, which was better compared to the prior month of June 2026 at 1.71, and worse compared to July 2025 at 1.32. For shorter hauls of less than 400 miles, the route-guide depth for July 2026 was 1.27, which was slightly better than the previous month of 1.28 but worse than July 2025 at 1.14.

·        Geographically, the Northeast experienced the smallest change of all regions, remaining flat compared to the previous month, while the South experienced the largest change, improving by 4.8%. Route-guide depth remains between 1.22 and 1.55 for all regions.

·        Route-guide failures decreased from the peak of 7.5% during the week of July 4, demonstrating the expected seasonal softening in the truckload market following the holiday. While the route guide failure rate has decreased to some of the softest levels in the past three months, it remains significantly higher than previous years’ levels.

·        Carriers report that market tightening continues to be driven more by capacity constraints than by a significant increase in freight demand.

·        Pricing remains firm, with shippers increasingly pursuing contracts to secure reliable service and reduce exposure to spot market volatility.

·        Selectivity is increasing as carriers prioritize customers, lanes, and freight that support efficiency and profitability for their network.

·        Driver recruitment and retention remain the industry's top operational challenge, with the pool of qualified drivers continuing to shrink.

·        Drivers continue to prioritize home time, predictable schedules, and regional opportunities, forcing carriers to adapt workforce strategies.

·        Higher wages, improved benefits, and increased recruiting investments are becoming necessary to maintain staffing levels and support service commitments.

·        Carriers remain disciplined in fleet investment, focusing on replacing aging equipment rather than adding meaningful net capacity.

·        Fleet growth remains limited despite strengthening market conditions, contributing to a gradual tightening of available capacity.

·        Rising equipment, maintenance, and insurance costs continue to influence capital decisions and slow large-scale fleet expansion.

·        Temperature-controlled freight conditions across the Eastern United States continue to reflect a mix of seasonal tightening and emerging areas of relief. In New England, capacity has tightened as expected for this time of year and is likely to remain constrained through the remainder of the summer produce season. Similar trends have developed across the Upper Atlantic, where rates have moved higher alongside stronger seasonal demand.

·        The Ohio River Valley has experienced some of the most volatile conditions in the region, with significant swings in demand creating equally volatile load-to-truck ratios and resulting in elevated transportation costs.

·        Further south, the Lower Atlantic experienced substantial rate increases throughout much of July, although early signs of easing began to emerge heading into August. The most notable shift occurred in the Southeast, where outbound refrigerated costs declined sharply as regional produce volumes fell and the summer harvest season began winding down.

·        Refrigerated market conditions across the Central United States softened during the second half of July as demand retreated from peak summer levels. The South Central region experienced the most significant decline, with outbound freight volumes falling sharply and load-to-truck ratios moving lower as a result.

·        While transportation costs have also eased, cost-per-mile declines have lagged the reduction in demand. This is consistent with broader national trends, as carriers continue to face elevated operating costs.

·        The Midwest and Great Lakes regions are following a similar trajectory, though at a more moderate pace. Freight demand and load-to-truck ratios are down, but pricing remains elevated compared to historical norms. The Upper Midwest remains the primary exception. Seasonal harvesting activity, particularly corn, is creating localized spikes in refrigerated demand and contributing to periodic capacity tightening.

·        The West Coast refrigerated market remains largely balanced overall, though conditions are beginning to diverge. In California, outbound demand has moderated somewhat compared to earlier in the summer. Load-to-truck ratios are down and cost-per-mile trends have begun to ease, reflecting a more balanced supply-and-demand environment.

·        However, pockets of tightened capacity continue to emerge sporadically across the state, depending on harvest schedules, commodity flows, and specific origin markets.

·        In contrast, the Pacific Northwest is entering a period of increasing seasonal pressure. Harvest activity for key commodities such as cherries and onions accelerated as July ended, driving a noticeable tightening in available refrigerated capacity. As additional crops move into harvest over the coming months, demand for refrigerated equipment is expected to increase further.

·        The flatbed market experienced some short-term volatility around the Fourth of July holiday, with conditions tightening briefly before gradually easing through the remainder of the month.

·        Even with this gradual easing, rates are expected to remain well above those of the past three years, reflecting a transition toward a more balanced flatbed market rather than a return to what had been unusually soft conditions.

·        Manufacturing activity continues to contribute to flatbed demand. ISM Manufacturing PMI accelerated to 55.6% in July, the highest reading since May 2022, showing the sector remained firmly in expansion territory, with new orders growing for the seventh consecutive month. Strength in manufacturing, combined with significant investment in AI infrastructure and data center construction, should help support industrial freight demand in the months ahead. These projects are helping offset the weakness in residential construction and providing a stable foundation for flatbed volumes. 

·        Looking ahead, conditions are expected to keep following normal seasonal patterns. Capacity should gradually improve through August as construction demand moderates, although regional tightening and short-term pricing volatility remain possible due to weather and local projects.