In the first quarter, spot rates, as measured by RXO’s proprietary Curve truckload market forecast, rose 16.5% year-over-year, the highest reading since the third quarter of 2021. This was also an acceleration from the fourth quarter of 2025, in which rates rose by 5.2%.
Through May 15, the Curve is on pace to finish the second quarter at an even higher mark than the first quarter.
“We’ve been in a year-over-year inflationary market for several quarters due to declining carrier capacity, but that hadn’t driven a substantial increase in rates until recently,” says Corey Klujsza, VP, of pricing and procurement at RXO. “The first quarter saw a significant spike in truckload rates, and that trend has continued into the first half of the second quarter. During CVSA Roadcheck last week, which further constrained capacity, truckload rates outperformed seasonality and hit levels we haven’t seen since 2022.”
Key takeaways:
· The surge in rates is the result of continued attrition of carrier capacity, driven by federal regulation enforcement, which has led to a supply imbalance relative to demand.
“We’re seeing significant linehaul and contract rate increases, despite muted shipper demand. Carriers remain under immense cost pressure, driven by increasing labor expenses, a higher cost of capital, insurance premiums, and, of course, diesel prices. The recent surge in rates, primarily due to continued capacity exits, has allowed carriers to begin to offset these inflationary pressures. If there is any uptick in shipping volumes, rates will rise at an even faster pace,” adds Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO.
