State of Global Supply Chains Come 2026: Colliers

Colliers' latest industrial and logistics market report provides an in-depth look at the 25 largest U.S. industrial markets. These markets, representing 76% of the nation's industrial base, are the driving forces behind new supply, occupier activity, and investment in the sector and are a major driver of national trends.

 
Key takeaways:

• Beginning in November, the U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments regarding the legality and constitutionality of the U.S. Administration’s import tariffs under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

• California State Senator Laura Richardson’s SB 34 sought to curb the regulatory authority of the South Coast Air Quality Management District, including a provision blocking the use of public funds for portside infrastructure or equipment that supports automation. The bill was ultimately vetoed.

• Hourly compensation for warehouse workers remained steady across the country relative to last quarter.

• Unemployment also held steady at 4.3%, although many forecasters expect employment growth to slow and the labor market to ease slightly.

• National truckload and refrigerated freight rates increased 2.3% and 3.2%, respectively, since July 2025

• National flatbed rates decreased 1.7% since July 2025, which is potentially correlated to the decline in building permits and/or a deceleration in the construction space.

• Each facility type requires specific operating conditions to fully capture its tariff and duty-deferral benefits. However, real estate that meets these requirements is limited.

• Recent market data from Q3 2025 indicates that even with sharp declines in September and shifting dynamics impacting U.S. port operations, year-to-date volumes of U.S. imports remain resilient.

• Although total U.S. container imports in September 2025 fell 8.4% from both the previous month, August 2025 and from September 2024, year-to-date volumes remain higher than the same period in 2024, indicating sustained overall demand.

• In September 2025, imports from China to U.S. ports fell 22.9% year-over-year. Key categories experiencing declines included aluminum, toys and sporting goods, footwear, and electrical machinery.

• Tariffs and port fees are driving broader economic concerns, including regional disparities in freight demand and potential upward pressure on consumer prices. These developments underscore the complex interplay between trade policies and port operations, highlighting the need for strategic planning and adaptive measures within the maritime industry.

• Dry van and reefer truckload rates have increased due to the late summer and early fall peak produce shipments, increasing reefer truckload demand, and a higher dry van demand from retail inventory replenishment. The continued exit of small truck fleets from the market has tightened capacity, amplifying seasonal rate spikes.

• Domestic air freight rates have risen due to a constrained supply of dedicated freight aircraft and increased operating expenses.

• Although container volumes have remained steady, ocean freight rates continued to fall due to weak peak season demand from China, excess capacity, and tariff-related front-loading. The National Retail Federation predicts import volume at the nation’s biggest container ports will steadily decline for the remainder of 2025.

• The U.S. labor market showed clear signs of cooling in Q3, with slowing job creation and no observable change in wage inflation.

• Median pay for warehouse associates has remained steady in Q3 2025.

• With the federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release a September jobs report. According to FactSet, there are estimates that the economy added 50,000 jobs and unemployment remained at 4.3% in September.

• Consumer sentiment around employment is weakening, with low expectations of improvement to employment and inflation concerns.

• Customs bonded warehouses and Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ) warehouses are distinct types of storage facilities used in U.S. import/export operations. Bonded warehouses allow for the deferred payment of import duties until goods are withdrawn for domestic consumption and follow standard Customs procedures. FTZ warehouses are considered outside U.S. customs territory, enabling businesses to delay, reduce, or eliminate duties and bypass formal customs entry processes. Each offers unique advantages depending on your logistics strategy, financial goals, and product processing needs.