Surging air freight, blank sailings, and U.S. strikes are set to disrupt global shipping, as outlined in Dimerco’s new Asia-Pacific Monthly Freight Report for October 2024.
“As we approach the final quarter of 2024, the freight market is showing signs of increasing volatility.” says Kathy Liu, VP of global sales and marketing at Dimerco Express Group. “Our October report highlights the surge in air freight demand expected in the coming weeks, driven by peak season preparations and the potential disruption from U.S. port strikes. Capacity across Intra-Asia routes will tighten, and shippers must act swiftly to secure space, especially for high-value or time-sensitive cargo. Those who delay may face significant challenges as we head into the busiest period of the year.”
Key takeaways:
- The Global Manufacturing PMI declined to 49.5 in August, continuing its contractionary trend. The decline reflects weakening demand and a broad slowdown in both developed and emerging markets, with China’s export figures falling for the first time in 2024.
- Air freight volumes are set to surge, driven by preparations for major online shopping festivals and a potential U.S. dockworker strike on October 1. The report anticipates tightening capacity across Intra-Asia routes, with air freight expected to absorb much of the overflow from ocean freight in response to labor disruptions.
- Blank sailings (canceled voyages) are set to disrupt shipping, with a 1.5-times increase in cancellations between late September and October. However, ocean freight rates, particularly on Trans-Pacific Eastbound (TPEB) and Europe-bound routes, are dropping as carriers deploy extra loaders to handle early shipments ahead of China’s Golden Week. The potential East and Gulf Coast port strike in the United States is further accelerating cargo movements.
- Southeast Asia and China are expected to experience significant freight shifts during Golden Week, with tight capacity anticipated on both air and ocean routes. Taiwan’s high-tech sectors continue to drive exports, despite slowing eCommerce demand and broader economic pressures.
- The potential International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) strike on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts looms large. A strike could impact up to 49% of U.S. imports. In response, companies are rerouting shipments to the West Coast to preempt disruptions. The report provides insights into how these contingency plans are unfolding as global trade braces for the potential impact.
