Dun & Bradstreet releases its Q1 2024 Global Business Optimism Insights report. The quarterly report shows a downturn in global supply chain continuity due to geopolitical tensions, trade disputes and climate-related disruptions in maritime trade causing both higher delivery costs and delayed delivery times. The report also indicates that businesses—having endured multiple challenges such as the pandemic, conflicts, and monetary tightening—are now adopting a growth mindset, as reflected in the overall optimism index.
“Global businesses are now maintaining a balance between optimism and realism and are adopting a more pragmatic stance towards their future. Leaders have endured frequent economic disruptions over the past few years and have become more adept at dealing with them; however, they remain cautious of geopolitical conflicts and supply chain disruptions,” says Neeraj Sahai, president, Dun & Bradstreet International. “This shift in mindset suggests anticipation of additional growth in the forthcoming quarters, albeit with an underlying sense of continued caution."
Key Takeaways:
- The Global Business Optimism Index increased by 6.6% in Q1 2024 compared with Q4 2023, indicating that businesses in advanced economies now feel more confident about their ability to absorb geopolitical and policy shocks, and are focusing more on growth opportunities.
- The Global Supply Chain Continuity Index fell sharply by 6.3% for Q1 2024 compared with Q4 2023, with suppliers’ delivery time and delivery cost indices both deteriorating. Executives also report that climate-induced disruptions and trade disputes are contributing to decreased optimism. This index declined equally for both advanced and emerging economies, with each receding 6% from the last quarter.
- The Global Business Financial Confidence Index increased by 10.1% in Q1 2024 compared with Q4 2023; in addition, liquidity is expected to increase across firms of all sizes and businesses are more optimistic about their competitive positioning, particularly large firms with greater resources employed in liquidity risk management.
- The Global Business Investment Confidence Index rose 10.7% in Q1 2024 compared with Q4 2023. This reading reflects a high absolute level of optimism and a growing consensus that major central banks in advanced economies have reached a peak in the current interest rate hike cycle.
- The Global Business Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Index increased 7% in Q4 2023 to 61.9, in contrast to a 4.7% decline in Q3 2023, reflecting a positive shift in the commitment of firms worldwide towards sustainability practices. The favorable sentiment towards ESG practices reflects an elevated awareness of sustainability, underscored by the recent agreement among nations at the COP28 conference.
