Carrier rates fell 3.3% per package from Q2 while what operators actually paid declined just 0.6%, as outlined in Deposco’s Q3 2026 issue of Commerce Signal.
"Rates came down, but operators didn’t feel it. That’s the story of the quarter," says Eric Lemus, VP of strategy and data analytics at Deposco. "Every margin conversation we’re having right now comes back to what actually shipped. That’s where the money went and where operators should focus."
Key takeaways:
· The gap is not contracts; it is what shipped. Heavier packages, faster services and more residential deliveries absorbed most of the potential rate relief.
· A previous Deposco Commerce Signal report predicted parcel inflation would continue rising into the third quarter. Instead, rates peaked the day the data closed and declined throughout the quarter.
- GMV growth closed the quarter at 11.7% and order growth at 5.3%. Read month by month, GMV growth has run near 10% and order growth near 3% to 5% since spring, all while pushing through a record low in consumer sentiment.
- Median days on hand closed at 93, level with last year for the first time since the destocking began, after a three-week build in September.
- Peak surcharges begin Oct. 25, and crude was back to about 40% above its July low by mid-October.
