U.S. Last-Mile Cost Inflation Holds at 12%

Operators with the highest levels of network control report 95% on-time performance, compared with 65.5% among low-control operators as outlined in new research from FarEye. The median WISMO rate (customer contacts asking “Where is my order?”) stands at 6.2% vs. 20.8%, while median year-over-year delivery cost inflation is 8.3% compared with 14.5%.

Findings also suggest that stronger performance is not simply a function of spending more on technology. Instead, the ability to govern, coordinate and execute across carriers, fleets and delivery partners is becoming a critical determinant of whether investment translates into better service and stronger economics.

“In the U.S., last-mile delivery is no longer an emerging capability; it is a highly mature, highly competitive operating environment where the differentiator is increasingly the quality of orchestration,” says Kushal Nahata, CEO and co-founder, FarEye. “Retailers and logistics providers are managing multiple carriers, owned fleets, regional partners and increasingly complex service expectations, all while protecting margins. What this research makes clear is that investment alone does not create control. The leaders are the organizations that can translate visibility, governance and orchestration into consistent execution across the network. That is what ultimately determines whether a delivery promise can be kept at an economics the business can sustain.”

Key takeaways:

·        Operators that prioritize the fastest possible delivery report only 76% on-time performance alongside 24% median cost inflation. By comparison, operators prioritizing predictable delivery achieve 88.4% on-time performance with 10% median cost inflation, while those focused on real-time tracking visibility report 90.3% on-time performance and just 4.9% median cost inflation.

·        The median year-over-year increase in cost per delivery was 12% in 2026, matching the 12% increase recorded in 2025, and suggesting that elevated cost inflation is becoming a more persistent operating condition rather than a temporary spike. Nearly 60% of respondents reported increases above 10%, while 20% reported increases above 20%.

·        88% of operators say delivery costs are growing at the same pace as revenue or faster, leaving just 12% in a position where revenue growth is outpacing delivery costs. For logistics leaders, the challenge is no longer simply to manage growth, but to scale delivery volumes and service expectations without allowing operating costs to rise at the same rate or faster.

·        The shift is also visible in what operators now consider the most important customer promise. 55.7% say predictable delivery or successful first-attempt delivery matters most, compared with just 11.4% that prioritize the fastest possible delivery. Predictability alone ranks first at 30%, followed by successful first-attempt delivery at 25.7%.

• Speed-first operators report 76% mean on-time performance and 24% median cost inflation, compared with 88.4% and 10% among predictability-first operators and 90.3% and 4.9% among visibility-first operators.

• 55.7% of operators prioritize predictable delivery or first-attempt success, while only 11.4% identify fastest possible delivery as their most important promise.

• 57% of respondents now combine owned and outsourced delivery capacity. Among hybrid operators, 47% plan to increase outsourcing further, compared with 27% of outsourced-only operators and 14% of own-fleet operators.

• The share of operators implementing or operating AI increased from 46.2% in 2025 to 66.3% in 2026. The report finds that technology maturity and investment alone do not explain the differences in network control or reliability.

• The research suggests that the next stage of U.S. last-mile competition will be defined less by who can make the fastest promise and more by who can control increasingly complex delivery networks well enough to make the right promise, execute it consistently and sustain the economics behind it.