The global ocean freight market is operating in a complex environment marked by oversupply of capacity, ongoing geopolitical disruptions, and evolving supply chain strategies, all of which are driving shifting trade patterns and the adoption of multimodal transportation options.
Below are the Top 3 forces influencing the global ocean freight market this quarter.
- Oversupply of capacity
A wave of new container vessels is entering the market. Many of these vessels were ordered during the profitable years of the ocean freight market in 2021 and 2022. In 2025, about 1.8 million TEUs of new vessel capacity were added to the global container fleet, about a 6% increase in supply according to market analysts. This year, 1.4-1.8 million TEUs are forecasted to be added, equating to a 3.6-5% increase, according to data from Alphaliner.
This influx of capacity is occurring at a time when demand growth is modest, with a forecasted global growth rate of 1-3%. The imbalance between supply and demand, however, is pressuring freight rates and shifting bargaining power back toward shippers. In fact, some analysts characterize 2026 as a “buyer’s market,” with spot rates in certain lanes falling sharply from pandemic-era highs. However, to bolster rates, ocean freight carriers are using such tactics as blank sailings and service suspensions.
2. Geopolitical risks
Geopolitical risk is another major force shaping ocean freight trends in 2026. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, particularly around key maritime chokepoints such as the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, are altering global shipping routes.
Many carriers continue to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope due to potential attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea. This shift adds 10-14 days to transit times and increases fuel consumption. This effectively absorbs excess capacity and pushes rates higher on these affected lanes. According to Drewry, diversions around the Cape of Good Hope have absorbed roughly 2 million TEU of global container capacity, equivalent to about 8% of the world fleet. There have been attempts by carriers such as CMA CGM and Maersk to restart shipping through the Red Sea, but it’s likely those efforts have ended due to the current U.S.-Iran conflict.
The latest conflict has closed off access to the Strait of Hormuz since it began in March. The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20-30% of global oil shipments, mostly to Asia and Europe, and a significant amount of LNG and fertilizer, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Diesel and air jet fuel are also affected, leading to higher fuel surcharges for trucking, air cargo carriers, and other transportation modes. In some situations, some U.S. truck carriers have parked trucks, while some airlines have reduced routes to conserve fuel.
A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, beginning April 8, may not lead to the reopening of the Strait as promised. The ceasefire will only hold if meaningful access through the Strait is restored, although in practice transit remains limited, tightly controlled and subject to evolving conditions.
3. Trade policies
Trade policies and tariffs are also playing a critical role in reshaping ocean freight demand. The continuation of protectionist measures, particularly between the United States and China, has led to shifts in global trade flows.
Production is shifting into Southeast Asia as companies look to reduce tariff exposure and diversify sourcing. This has led to growth in exports and investments in port structure across countries including Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. As a result, shipping lines are increasing capacity into these markets to support the growth.
Other markets in Europe, Latin America and emerging economies are also experiencing growth. This change in focus is contributing to uneven demand patterns, with some routes experiencing growth while traditionally volume-heavy lanes such as the transpacific remain subdued. As a result, carriers are reallocating capacity to align with these changing flows, further complicating the market.
Evolving supply chain strategies
A combination of geopolitical risks, trade policies, and signs of ‘normalization’ is among the reasons for shifts in shippers’ supply chain strategies. During the pandemic and in the wake of last year’s U.S. tariff announcements, many shippers engaged in frontloading. This behavior distorted traditional seasonality, creating unusually strong demand in certain periods followed by sharp declines.
In 2026, signs suggest that more typical seasonal patterns may return, though uncertainty persists amid ongoing policy and geopolitical risks.
The uncertainty has led many shippers to continue to maintain a China+1 sourcing strategy, which will mean expanding ocean freight demand to other countries, particularly in Southeast Asia.
Additionally, to reduce transportation costs and mitigate risks, shippers are using multimodal options that may involve ocean freight for the first leg of transportation and then air, truck, or rail for the final leg.
Ocean freight market outlook
Looking ahead, the ocean freight market this year will be focused on the Middle East once again, primarily impacting oil and fertilizer markets, and will also continue to feature extended transits as many container ships avoid the Red Sea.
In addition, the combination of oversupply, modest demand growth, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty beyond the Middle East will keep volatility a defining feature.
Rates are likely to remain under pressure in the near term, with occasional spikes driven by disruptions or seasonal demand surges. However, surcharges, particularly those that attempt to recover fuel costs, will remain high if the conflict in the Middle East persists.
While the era of extreme rate inflation has largely passed, the ocean freight market has not yet reached a stable equilibrium. Instead, it is navigating a new phase where structural imbalances and external shocks create ongoing uncertainty.
