2. What are the macro-economic and geopolitical assumptions that could impact this decision through the lifecycle of the program?
- Direct Costs: What are the forecasted raw materials, labor, and energy costs?
- Financial Impacts: What are the forecasted inflation rates? What are the forecasted currency exchange rates?
- Geopolitical Environment: What is the state of affairs between the supplier's country with the U.S., EU, and other markets for your product? Is there escalating trade sanction rhetoric? Are there specific anti-dumping or countervailing duty cases between the two countries for your industry? Any quotas or safeguard measures?
- Supply Chain Risk: What supply chain interruptions can be expected for this trade lane? Is there a risk of natural hazards, i.e., weather? Don't forget to anticipate labor strikes and the frequency of port congestion?
- Special Trade Preference Programs: Are there any duties on your product from this country? Are there any current or proposed Free Trade Agreements that could impact the product from this source?
- Other Government Requirements: What government agencies have jurisdiction of your product (for example, FDA, FCC, or EPA) and how does that agency view products from that source? Is there talk of increased inspections? Are the documentary requirements becoming more stringent?
3. How do we monitor all of these assumptions for changes?
- How timely can we monitor customer demand and alter forecasts?
- What sensing mechanisms can we build to monitor changes to raw material, labor and energy costs? At what point does an inflationary pressure create a problem?
- At what point does a shift in the currency exchange rate change make this a sub-optimal decision?
- What legislation or court cases are in progress that could change our assumptions? For example, recent U.S. legislation requires over the next five years that all maritime cargo be scanned in the foreign port prior to loading onto the vessel and three years for air cargo on passenger flights. If some ports are having issues with congestion now, then this may further exacerbate the problem.
- How can we identify and stop a quality issue before the goods are shipped?
- How can we be alerted to delays in the supply chain and how can we best react to those changes?
4. What are the alternative sources? And if there are none right now are we actively trying to develop alternatives?
- What are the alternatives not only for the product supplier, but also logistics providers, physical logistics routes, ports, etc.?
5. What is our exit strategy?
- Take a page out of the risk management playbook of stock traders and poker players that understand high risk and high reward. Know before you award the sourcing how much you're willing to risk and when you'll need to get out.
Is Global Sourcing Worth It?
Are the benefits of global sourcing really worth the challenge? Global sourcing can be a great tool to drive efficiency and help gain access to new markets. However, it is not a strategy to be undertaken with little thought and many assumptions. It's important to analyze the role global sourcing plays in your organization's overall strategic plan. Asking the right questions not only before making the sourcing decision, but also regularly throughout the lifecycle of the transaction can help mitigate your risk and improve the odds that the answer for your sourcing question is "Yes."
About the Author: John Brockwell is vice president for global trade management at JPMorgan. He has an extensive background in the global trade business and process evaluation, logistics planning and decision support systems. As the global supply chain management practice leader, his focus is on finding opportunities for businesses to optimize their international trade by improving costs, cycle times and quality and by minimizing risks. Supply & Demand Chain Executive named him one of the magazine's 2007 Pros to Know for his work in promoting awareness of the financial supply chain and the need to integrate the physical and financial value chains. More information at www.jpmorgan.com.