
Q4 2024 Showed strong retail performance, with growth expected to continue in Q1, according to the Motive Monthly Economic Report .
Motive’s Big Box Retail Index was up 3.8% year-over-year in the peak week leading up to Christmas with department stores, marking moderate year-over-year growth across all segments of the market. Department stores, apparel, and electronics showed very strong performance, increasing 41.8% compared to 2023, indicating very strong demand for inventory in the final weeks before the holiday and strong holiday shopping season overall. Changes to retailers’ restocking patterns, particularly when they are bringing inventory into the stores, also contributing to this year over year spike.
“In 2024, we saw peak movement occur a week later than in 2023. However, when comparing the peaks of 2023 and 2024, we expect to see a 32% increase in 2024. The overall positive performance of the Big Box Retail Index is a sign of a healthy economy and consistent consumer spending,” Motive experts say.
Key takeaways:
● Retailers are poised for moderate gains in Q1 as healthy economy fuels consumer spending across sectors.
● Import rates will continue to rise in Q1, despite continued concerns around the impact of tariffs.
● Long-term tariff impacts on cross-border activity are expected to be moderate; much of the current tariff speculation is overblown.
● Expect nearly 30% spike in new carrier registrations in January as trucking market continues positive trajectory.
● Retailers saw strong performance in Q4 and holiday season, indicating a healthy economy and consistent consumer spending.
● Consumers are increasingly shopping in-person.
● Strong trade with Mexico continues; imports through the Laredo port increased ~30% year-over-year.
● While Mexico trade continues to rise, trucks crossings from Canada dip.
● Anticipated tariffs and East Coast labor strikes drive surges in south-border trade.
● Q4 carrier exits down a whopping 69% year-over-year.
“The Q1 2025 economic outlook is positive, with strong retail performance, rising trade with Mexico, and growth in the trucking market. Stabilizing interest rates, robust consumer demand, and higher inventory levels are expected to drive retail and freight activity. The trucking market is poised for significant growth in Q1, with new carrier registrations expected to jump nearly 30% in January. Declining carrier exits and policy-driven opportunities, particularly in industrial sectors like oil and gas, are creating a more stable and optimistic outlook for the sector with a potential boom cycle in the future,” Motive experts say.