Import volumes dipped slightly in August, indicating the traditional surge of drayage activity spanning late Q3 to early Q4 will not materialize for the 2025 peak season, as outlined in ITS Logistics US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index.
However, front-loaded freight is now moving inland, causing congestion in key rail lanes from the coasts and bolstering domestic truckload activity in select regions. With inventory now moving across the U.S., shippers must focus on protecting it from rising rates of cargo theft as the industry enters the hectic holiday season.
“For the most part, shippers have already moved inventory into North America during various frontloading surges throughout the year,” says Paul Brashier, VP of global supply chain for ITS Logistics. “This freight is now being transported inland from coastal areas, which is reflected in high inbound ocean and domestic container volumes and higher outbound truckload rates from areas with expansive DC and warehouse footprints, including Southern California, Dallas, Chicago, and Atlanta.”
Key takeaways:
· U.S. container imports for August totaled 2,519,722 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), up 1.6% year-over-year, but down 3.9% from July’s near-record highs. The National Retail Federation projects that tariff policies will result in a 5.6% decrease in total inbound volume for 2025, which, given year-to-date volumes, could mean a drop as stark as 17.5% is coming in the final few months of 2025. ITS Logistics confirms that dips in demand in August will likely continue through October.
· Declining import volumes and peak season activity are occurring within another exceptionally tumultuous regulatory period for supply chain professionals. Aug. 29 marked the last day of the de minimis exemption, subjecting 92% of all U.S. cargo shipments to new duties and causing nearly a dozen countries and global shipping companies to temporarily pause shipments to the United States. That same day, a U.S. appeals court ruled most tariffs issued by President Donald Trump to be illegal. While the majority of shippers are waiting for the Supreme Court’s final decision — now expected in November — before making any changes, the ruling compounds the uncertainty companies face as they prepare for 2026 RFP season. A stay on the tariff ruling is in place until Oct. 14, which is also when the next phase of USTR port fees on Chinese vessel owners and operators is slated to take effect.
· Freight that has already entered the domestic market faces its own challenges. With large volumes of front-loaded inventory now moving inland, increases in ocean containers and intermodal equipment will likely cause congestion to key rail lanes for the next several months.
· At the same time, organized cargo theft and freight fraud have reached record-high levels across both rail and trucking. According to the Association of American Railroads (AAR), theft on railways surged 40% in 2024, costing Class I rail operators more than $100 million. Verisk CargoNet reported a 13% increase in truck-based fraud incidents in the second quarter of 2025, citing increases in organized crime and targeting of consumer goods. These trends underscore the need for shippers to partner with providers who leverage strong relationships and innovative strategies to keep freight secure across all modes.
“In peak season especially, stolen inventory and fraud incidents create delays that cost shippers far more than the lost load itself,” Brashier adds. “That’s why it’s essential to partner with carriers who not only provide real-time visibility but also maintain rigorous onboarding and fraud-prevention standards to protect freight from port to final destination.”
