Verisk CargoNet, a Verisk business, recorded 767 supply chain crime events across the United States and Canada in the first quarter of 2026, a 5.3% decrease from Q1 2025 and a 12.2% decline from Q4 2025.
Despite fewer incidents, estimated losses reached $131.58 million, essentially unchanged from Q1 2025, and confirmed cargo theft reports rose by 41 incidents to 596 of 767 total events.
“The overall drop in incident volume is encouraging, but the underlying data tells a more complex story,” says Keith Lewis, VP, operations at Verisk CargoNet. “We’re watching transnational organized crime groups become the dominant force in the cargo theft landscape, with a clear preference for goods that move easily through online resale channels. The geography is following the criminals.”
Key takeaways:
· Among the Top 8 states for cargo theft, most saw year‑over‑year declines—with two notable exceptions. California increased from 255 to 277 incidents, and New Jersey surged from 27 to 59, a 119% jump that continues the trend identified in Verisk CargoNet’s Q3 2025 analysis. Both states are primary operating environments for organized crime networks, offering dense logistics infrastructure and proximity to major consumer markets.
· Meanwhile, Texas declined from 102 to 80 incidents, a 22% drop. The types of opportunistic theft historically common in the Dallas–Fort Worth and Houston logistics corridors appear to be giving way to more targeted operations elsewhere in the country.
· Within food and beverage, which remained the top category at 144 events, the composition shifted: beverage theft declined while seafood targeting climbed sharply.
· Building materials fell from 21 events to 8, a category historically dominated by domestic groups operating seasonally in North Texas.
· Categories such as building materials, apparel, and vehicle-related shipments declined year-over-year.
· The most significant tactical development in Q1 2026 is the maturation of impersonation‑based theft into a systematic, scalable criminal methodology.
· To bypass anti‑fraud tools, criminal networks have largely settled on impersonating legitimate motor carriers and logistics brokers.
· The second method is outright acquisition of motor carrier businesses.
“The anti‑fraud tools the industry has deployed are working, they’re forcing criminals to invest more in elaborate schemes,” says Lewis. “But the shift toward credential theft and carrier impersonation means the industry needs to think beyond tender‑phase controls. We need robust identity verification throughout the lifecycle of a shipment, from booking to delivery.”
