The Chinese New Year (CNY), which falls on Feb. 17, is the most important and most ceremonious holiday in Chinese culture. However, its rhythm affects not only social life in China, but also, in a very tangible way, the functioning of the global economy.
The scale of China’s impact on global supply chains means that the effects of this period are felt on all continents. It is worth remembering that China is currently a key non-EU import partner for European markets, including the Central and Eastern Europe region. It is precisely this structural dependence that makes the impact of Chinese New Year clearly visible in the region.
During Chinese New Year, there is a production shutdown lasting more than a dozen days, during which employees leave factories, often travelling many hours to their family hometowns. A large number of manufacturing plants are completely closed during this period, and the return to full production capacity takes place gradually, after the official holiday ends. Therefore, companies around the world must take this period into account when planning production, deliveries and inventory building.
What do global supply chains look like in the context of CNY 2026?
Currently, companies are approaching the period preceding Chinese New Year in a more planned and time-distributed manner. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and heightened uncertainty in international trade, the situation in global supply chains ahead of CNY remains relatively stable and follows well-known patterns, also observed during last year’s autumn peak seasons. Import activity from China is increased, but does not take the form of a sudden, short-term peak – shipments are more evenly spread over time, and the market operates in a more orderly and predictable way. Maritime transport, which remains the primary mode of global trade exchange, is currently carried out without significant disruptions in terms of capacity availability.
It should be emphasized, however, that the current seasonality ahead of CNY operates within a broader context of global changes in trade. 2025 was largely defined by growing protectionist policies, particularly resulting from actions taken by the U.S. administration in the area of customs tariffs. For over a year, global business has been facing increased unpredictability – successive tariffs being introduced, temporarily suspended, and announcements of new trade barriers. This largely affects China and translates into a decline in sales of local products on the U.S. market, alongside an increase in flows on the China-European route, which is reflected in the structure of maritime freight operations. This means that companies increasingly diversify shipping directions and timing, spreading volumes over time and adapting their supply chains to a changing regulatory environment, which is clearly visible ahead of Chinese New Year. At the same time, volumes are also growing on routes from ASEAN countries such as Vietnam and Thailand, as well as from Taiwan, towards the U.S. market, which further influences the balance of power in global trade.
Another significant phenomenon is the change in interest in rail services on the China-Europe route. There was an increase in rail volumes after December 2023, in response to the crisis in the Red Sea and the extension of maritime transit times to Europe. Currently, however, it is evident that many companies have adjusted their business processes – production, distribution and inventory levels – to longer maritime transport times. Of course, in the period preceding Chinese New Year, the industry observes a moderate revival of interest in rail transport, particularly in the less-than-container-load (LCL) segment, but demand for rail is lower than two years ago. It is also worth noting that lower interest in rail freight, and consequently more competitive rates, may represent a business opportunity for importers who, encouraged by lower prices, decide to shift part of their volumes to rail and use this option as an element of supply chain diversification, also on routes other than China-Europe.
Traditionally, logistical trends are visible last in air transport, which due to the shortest transit time, is used at the final stage of delivery planning. This applies primarily to fresh goods, high-value cargo and the e-commerce sector, which remains one of the main growth drivers of the air cargo market. Air transport also serves as a solution for urgent shipments in other industries that need to meet critical delivery deadlines, including in the context of Chinese New Year. As in maritime transport, leaders are currently observing an increase in air freight volumes from China to Europe, although it is not a sudden or extraordinary peak. This translates, as standard, into higher prices, especially operating within winter flight schedules, which offer around 10% fewer passenger flights than in the summer season. This has a direct impact on cargo capacity availability, as a significant portion of freight is carried in the baggage holds of passenger aircraft (so-called belly cargo).
A more complete picture of the situation in global supply chains is also provided by operations in the area of customs services. The continued interest in this area reflects increased logistics activity in the period preceding Chinese New Year. For clients, efficient and predictable customs procedures remain key, regardless of the mode of transport used for imports. Clearance efficiency has a direct impact on the smooth functioning of the entire supply chain, especially during seasonal periods such as CNY.
In summary, Chinese New Year 2026 does not bring a sudden shock to global supply chains. Instead of a short, intense peak, similar to the autumn peak seasons, there is more time-distributed seasonality, more stable operations, and a market that has learned to function in conditions of heightened uncertainty.
