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Intra-USMCA trade has surged 29% since ratification, according to Altana's Future of Trade Forum. But, data also reveals $86 billion in forced labor-exposed shipments upstream in product value, a surge in goods transshipment, and expert prediction that the entire USMCA enforcement paradigm must change.
Key takeaways:
- Total goods trade between the United States, Canada, and Mexico eclipsed $1.6 trillion yearly, and has risen 29% since the ratification of USMCA in 2020. Critical sectors, such as automotive, have seen deep supply chain integration, with automotive trade between the three countries rising 38% since ratification.
- Transshipment vulnerabilities in the USMCA bloc persist, especially amid a strengthened U.S. tariff regime. As U.S. imports from China plummeted in 2025, Chinese goods found possible transshipment and non-transformation routes through southeast Asia into the USMCA bloc. Analysis from Altana’s network found a 14-times increase in U.S.-bound transshipment over the course of 2025, totaling nearly $300 billion.
- Increased North American forced labor enforcement has still intercepted only a fraction of the exposure flowing into the USMCA trade bloc. At least $86 billion worth of USMCA-bound shipments –– $71.6 billion of which entered the United States –– had upstream product inputs exposed to forced labor in 2024 and 2025, according to insights from Altana’s Knowledge Graph. This is more than 35 times the total value of goods subject to UFLPA enforcement in that same time period. Core supply chain inputs, including electrical machinery and semiconductors ($24.4 billion), machinery and computers ($9.6 billion), plastics ($4.9 billion), and vehicles and auto parts ($2.0 billion) were especially exposed.
- Ahead of USMCA joint review, the majority (62.9%) of a curated group of senior trade, supply chain, and geopolitical experts anticipate a conditional renewal with amendments by the end of 2026. The “Trump Corollary” for hemispheric relations was rated as the most notable strategic factor impacting joint review, with 98.4% of trade leaders ranking it as important.
- Addressing transshipment was the most likely negotiation flashpoint to be rated as “critical” by trade leaders, with 56.5% of respondents giving that designation. 87% of trade leaders agree that component-level supply chain visibility — knowing what's in a product, not just where it ships from — will become the dominant enforcement paradigm in trade agreements. And 95.2% of respondents said that AI and technology would be important to achieving this component-level visibility, improving enforcement, and maintaining the flow of trusted trade.
- Estimated $40 billion in U.S. tariff revenue lost to transshipment, misclassification, misvaluation through USMCA.
- USMCA-bound shipments with upstream forced labor exposure in 2024 and 2025, of which only $2 billion was subject to enforcement, equaled $86 billion.
- 62.9% share of senior trade experts who anticipate a conditional renewal of USMCA with amendments by the end of 2026.
- 87% of experts agree that component-level visibility will be the next USMCA enforcement paradigm.
