
From heightened safety risks on the road to shifting retail trends and ongoing freight market disruptions, Motive’s Holiday Outlook Report provides critical insights into the State of Safety, Retail, Freight, Theft, and Fraud.
“Looking ahead to the 2024 holiday season and into 2025, the outlook for businesses operating fleets and managing logistics is defined by both risk and opportunity. Heightened safety concerns, rising freight demands, and shifts in retail and theft trends will require proactive strategies to address. Implementing advanced technologies like AI-powered dash cams, 360-degree cameras, real-time tracking tools, and robust security systems will be crucial for maintaining operational efficiency and protecting assets. As businesses adapt to these emerging trends, those that invest in technology and innovation will be better positioned to thrive this holiday season and beyond,” according to Motive.
Key takeaways:
- Collision and weather risks are particularly high during the holidays. Motive’s 2023 Holiday Outlook Report revealed a 10% increase in speeding events before Christmas, culminating in a 32% spike in crashes on Christmas Day when compared to the rest of December.
- Hazardous weather played a significant role, with 65.5% of Christmas Day crashes occurring on wet, snowy, or icy roads.
- Motive data shows that nearly half (47%) of all collisions happen after dark, even though more vehicles are on the road during the day. Hours of Dervice violations peak during the holidays as well, as drivers push themselves to meet delivery deadlines.
- By prioritizing stability over cost savings, retailers are moving away from the traditional low-inventory, just-in-time restocking model. Instead, they’re restocking earlier and building extra inventory to shield themselves from unpredictable disruptions. This shift was underscored by a 19.7% year-over-year increase in Chinese imports by mid-summer.
- As supply chain disruptions become more frequent, proactive planning and diversification are essential. Retailers that adapt will safeguard their holiday sales — often accounting for 30-50% of annual revenue.
- With the International Longshoremen’s Association strike lasting just two days, holiday sales are on the path to growth. Fueled by a flood of imports into the Port of Los Angeles in July and August, sales are projected to be 5-8% higher this year.
- Restocking trends in grocery and superstores hit an all-time high in August, up 22.6% year-over-year. Department stores and apparel saw an even higher spike in restocking, at 27.1%.
- Expect moderate growth to return in the first quarter and long-term growth trends of 5.7%, year over year, to be restored by the end of 2025.
- Carrier exits remained stable in September, with about 1,300 operators closing for the third straight month. Low trucking rates continue to put pressure on small businesses, making it difficult for many to stay afloat. At the same time, new carrier entries have declined by 5.1% since August, even as 7,800 new carriers entered the market. Although new entries are down 10% year-over-year, they’re still 38% higher than the pre-pandemic levels of 2019.
- Cargo theft surged 49% in the first half of 2024, and the holiday season will likely exacerbate it even more. A review of holiday theft trends from the past five years indicates an average loss of $121,473 per theft, making these crimes a significant financial burden for companies.
- Fraud, especially in the form of fuel card theft, is a growing issue for companies operating fleets. Industry leaders estimate that 19% of current fleet spend is lost to fraud or theft. That figure rises to 22% in industries like construction. For businesses operating on thin margins due to fluctuating costs like fuel, maintenance, and insurance, these losses are especially painful.