Electronics Supply Chain to Fully Recover from Japan Disaster in Q3

IHS iSuppli report expects full shipments by early September for companies near epicenter

El Segundo, CA—June, 2011—With some companies having already recovered from the Japanese earthquake, the entire electronics industry is expected to complete its rebound from the disaster by the end of the third quarter, according to new IHS iSuppli research.

Electronics companies with operations near the epicenter of the quake that had suffered building and equipment damage are expected to restore full shipments by early September, six months after the March 11 quake. The restoration will coincide with the peak season for electronics and semiconductor sales in the third quarter.

“In the history of the electronics supply chain, nothing has had such a broad impact as the Japan earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster,” said Dale Ford, senior vice president for semiconductor market intelligence at IHS, speaking at the IHS Design & Supply Chain Global Summit last week in San Jose, Calif. “The worldwide repercussions of the catastrophe illustrated the global and interconnected nature of the electronics industry, with the impact of the disaster reverberating through the materials, components and equipment segments of the supply chain. However, even the semiconductor companies suffering the most direct damage from the quake, full production will resume near the end of the third quarter.”

The duration of production disruptions varied depending on distance from the earthquake epicenter. Affected companies that were farthest from the epicenter took only one to two weeks to restore production, while companies closest to the disaster could take as long as four to six months to return to normal—depending on their response to the disaster.

IHS has identified 14 semiconductor suppliers and four silicon wafer makers in Japan that were impacted by the quake.

The timing of the recovery will be fortuitous. Following normal seasonal patterns, global semiconductor revenue growth will hit an annual crescendo in the third quarter, with a sequential rise of 7.4 percent. This compares to a 1.4 percent decline in the first quarter, a 2.9 percent increase in the second quarter and a 3.1 percent rise in the fourth quarter.

The disaster also had varying impacts on assorted segments of the semiconductor market. The impact was most severe on automotive equipment, given that Japan accounts for 31.5 percent of global semiconductor production for automotive electronics. Consumer electronics bore the next greatest impact, with a moderate effect on production. Here, Japan is responsible for 45.1 percent of global consumer electronics semiconductor production.

In comparison, the impact on the wireless and data processing semiconductor markets was mild, while the wired communications segment wasn’t affected at all.

Post-disaster recovery for Fujitsu

The impact on specific companies also varied according to their level of exposure to the catastrophe and the effectiveness of their disaster-response efforts.

Fujitsu has distinguished itself with the most rapid and efficient recovery effort among all Japanese semiconductor suppliers, Ford said. Despite facilities close to the epicenter of the earthquake, the company said it had attained full recovery to pre-disaster production levels at five chip plants on June 9.

The main factor propelling Fujitsu’s fast recovery was the company’s disaster-response strategy implemented three years ago following an earthquake in Japan’s Iwate prefecture. The company operates semiconductor manufacturing facilities in various parts of the world, allowing it to pick up the slack if one region is hit by a disaster. Fujitsu also has an effective plan that can restore electricity, water and other utilities at disaster-stricken plants.

Furthermore, the company in the past had installed equipment that could seismically isolate damage to semiconductor wafers, which succeeded this time in mitigating the impact of the earthquake.