AccuWeather
"The current El Niño pattern that is in place is forecast to transition into a La Niña pattern during the second half of the hurricane season," Porter says. "Any storms that do form will have the potential to rapidly strengthen, even close to land, due to the exceptionally warm waters.”
Key takeaways:
- La Niña typically leads to more tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic due to reduced wind shear or disruptive winds high in the atmosphere. The timing of the onset of La Niña could also dictate whether this upcoming season will be similar to the 2020 season, or if the number of tropical systems will fall short of historic levels.
- Warm water is the fuel for hurricanes, and all signs are pointing toward potentially record-shattering warmth across the Atlantic hurricane basin during the summer and fall.
- The water temperatures in the Main Development Region (MDR) at the end of January were a staggering 65% higher than the next closest year, a clear indication of how unusually warm the water is in this critical area of the Atlantic Ocean.
- As of mid-February, the water temperatures across the Atlantic were at the same level where they typically are in mid-July, and the temperatures may only rise as the days get longer and heat builds across the Northern Hemisphere heading into spring and summer.
"The second half of the hurricane season is likely to be very active, as conditions will be more favorable for tropical systems," says AccuWeather long-range expert Paul Pastelok. "We expect that the Gulf Coast, especially the Texas coast, will be at a higher risk for direct impacts from a tropical system this year.”
