AccuWeather expert meteorologists are concerned about a serious threat of rapidly intensifying storms during the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season, which could leave families, businesses, and government leaders with less time to react and prepare.
AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva says rapidly intensifying tropical storms and hurricanes pose a major threat to life and property along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coastlines.
“Sea-surface temperatures across the Atlantic Basin as a whole have never been warmer in recorded history on this date than they are right now. The fear is that as we enter the heart of the tropical season, the sea-surface temperature may eclipse the record-breaking season that was 2023,” says DaSilva. “2023 is the benchmark for the warmest that the Atlantic basin has ever been in recorded history. Tropical storms and hurricanes love to feed off of warm ocean water. The warmer the oceans are, the more favorable the environment will be for tropical development and intensification.”
Key takeaways:
- The minimum temperature threshold for tropical development is roughly 80°F. AccuWeather expert meteorologists say many areas of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and southwest Atlantic basin are already above that threshold.
- Ocean waters in the Main Development Regional typically continue to warm through August and into early September.
- The La Niña weather pattern usually leads to less disruptive wind shear in the Atlantic basin, which can create ideal conditions for storms to rapidly intensify.
- The Ocean Heat Content, or depth of warm ocean waters, across the Gulf of Mexico, the south-central Atlantic, the Caribbean, and waters off the southeast U.S. coast are in territory that is typically seen in August.
- The AccuWeather 2024 U.S. Hurricane Forecast was issued in March to provide advanced notice to help families, businesses and leaders prepare. AccuWeather’s exclusive forecast calls for 20-25 named storms, 4-7 of which will strengthen to major hurricanes. AccuWeather’s forecast calls for 4-6 direct U.S. impacts.
“This year we’re exceptionally concerned about the Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida, and the Carolinas,” says DaSilva. “Storm surge and rainfall flooding are the deadliest threats from a hurricane. More people die from storm surge and flooding than the wind.”
