Reported cargo theft losses in the United States and Canada will top $1 billion in 2027, according to the 2027 Cargo Theft Forecast released by SpaceHawk GPS.
CargoNet logged nearly $725 million in cargo theft losses in 2025, up 60% from 2024. The 2026 pace is faster. CargoNet's separate Q1 and Q2 releases add up to $436 million, already 60% of the 2025 total.
Thieves are also choosing bigger targets. The average stolen load hit $564,000 in Q2 2026, double the 2025 average.
"Thieves now pick the load before they pick the lock. I've spent 15 years in GPS tracking, and I've rarely seen numbers move like this. In the second quarter, thefts fell 26% and losses more than doubled," says Ryan Horban, GPS tracking expert and author of the forecast, SpaceHawk GPS.
Key takeaways:
· California and Texas held 58% of U.S. cargo thefts in 2025, per Overhaul. California logged 1,218 incidents, the most of any state, per CargoNet.
· Repeating the first half puts 2026 near $872 million, a new record. Growth of 15% in 2027 then crosses $1 billion. Losses grew 37% in 2024 and 60% in 2025.
· Losses beat the 2025 record before the year ends.
· Deceptive pickups pass one in eight U.S. cargo thefts in 2027.
· The 2026 Thanksgiving period tops the 79 thefts CargoNet logged over Thanksgiving 2024.
