When considering the global trade environment in 2009 there are a number of potential issues looming that could disrupt global supply chains, sourcing strategies and the flow of working capital. Several issues are hangovers from 2008's economic turbulence, and some are just starting to develop. If not properly addressed, importers and exporters may face significant unexpected costs and increased disruptions to their supply chain. But the news for 2009 isn't all bad. A number of promising opportunities exist as well. Below are nine trends that will continue to challenge multinational businesses for at least the next 12 months.
Supply Chain Risk Mitigation in an Economic Downturn
In times of economic downturn, leading companies will focus on restructuring supply chain operations to better position themselves to grab additional market share and profits as economies around the world start down the path of recovery. A large part of supply chain re-engineering efforts focus on driving out inefficiencies while balancing risk. Supply chain risk mitigation will receive increased focus this coming year versus past downturns due to many factors:
- Supplier financial risk. As financial weakness permeates the marketplace, we already are seeing a rise in supplier bankruptcies. Companies will need to reevaluate their supply chains to identify and support their key partners and reduce the number of potential "weak link" suppliers. At the same time multiple suppliers for a single product or part must be secured to ensure supply chains keep running. Expect more dual- or multi-source procurement of raw materials, parts, subcomponents and assemblies to counter supplier financial risk, to develop sources closer to end markets, and to hedge currency swings and future inflationary pressures in different regions and economies.
- Volatility in energy, commodity, labor rates and currency exchange. Companies need to factor into their decisions potential fluctuations in future energy and commodity prices, as well as labor and currency exchange rates. Some industry sectors, such as industrial goods and construction, are likely to see robust price increases as major economies around the world announce economic stimulus packages focusing on major infrastructure programs. Any resulting boom could produce another run of sharp increases in some commodities and energy.
- Unpredictable economic recoveries. Economic recoveries will likely be unpredictable and somewhat choppy across regions. The ability to quickly react to global shifts in demand will be critical for success. More redundant manufacturing capability should be established across multiple geographies in order to realize better time-to-market for end customers and to be able to balance and buffer demand globally. Redundant manufacturing also can serve as a hedge against currency swings and future inflationary pressures in different economies.
Searching for Working Capital
A Resurgence in Letters of Credit
Shortening the Supply Chain
Improved Speed and Savings in Mexico
More Free Trade Agreements and More Scrutiny
China Clamps Down on Oversight
New Import Challenges — The Amended Lacey Act
A Global Eye Toward Consumer Product Safety
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