Optimization – Solving the "What if?" Implementation Dilemma

By David Bush and Melissa Beuc

What if...

• Actual demand for our product is greater (or less) than forecasted?
• My facilities have different quality standards for the same product?
• I need to select a "green," "low-cost country" or "diversity" supplier?
• My preferred suppliers have capacity or lead-time issues?
• I have only 10 days to decide the best award for five locations from 10 suppliers, 20 line items and hundreds of bids?

A successful sourcing project does not end with an auction; it ends when the awarded supplier delivers the correct product at the right time, place and cost. Implementation delivers the savings. Yet, at many companies, the "what-ifs" get in the way of realizing significant savings and product quality improvements. While an average sourcing project may take six to eight weeks to prepare and execute, the award decision can often take an additional six to eight weeks, not including new supplier verification. The additional time invested in award analysis can critically affect a company, especially if the company can obtain cost savings in two weeks rather than two months. In one example we know of, a company estimated that it cost them $1.6 million per month for an unimplemented sourcing project.

So why is it so difficult to award contracts when the savings potential is so obvious? Another company ran a $24 million auction for printed circuit boards. The sourcing team ecstatically presented $9.6 million in identified savings (an overall savings of 40 percent, with 70 percent in one lot alone). However, after six months, the actual savings delivered was $0. Why? Too many what-ifs got in the way. The joint sourcing and stakeholder team could not agree on the correct award scenarios, therefore, no decision was made.

Price factors are the easiest to analyze and compare. A sourcing analyst can calculate totals and summarize and rank suppliers for easy comparisons. But it is the other factors that prolong the decision-making process and often override the price factors. The key to a speedy award decision and implementation is managing the "what-if" factors.

The Six "What-if" Factors

There are six basic "what-if" factors, or risks, that affect award decisions and implementations. Some sourcing projects are infused with all factors, others just a few. Regardless, if not effectively managed, they can dramatically lengthen (or stall) the entire award decision and implementation process.