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Copenhagen Seen Failing to Deliver a Final Agreement on Climate Change
Datamonitor predicts that conference will largely fail to provide developing nations with the finance and technology to stop climate change in its tracks
Copenhagen — December 7, 2009 — The Copenhagen conference on climate change that begins today will largely fail to provide developing nations with the finance and technology to stop climate change in its tracks, market analyst Datamonitor has predicted.
A Datamonitor white paper published on the eve of the UN summit warns that attempts to reach a credible deal on the transfer of low-carbon technologies from richer to developing countries may well be thwarted by "zero-sum mindsets" suspicious of burden sharing.
Indeed, the whole issue of technology transfer is in danger of being reduced to a footnote at Copenhagen as political leaders grapple to reach a broader, headline-grabbing deal on emission reductions, Datamonitor writes. Fierce Western opposition and time pressures mean the billion-dollar question of who will bankroll the transition to clean renewable energy is likely to go unresolved.
Datamonitor energy analysts, who will be tracking developments during the two-week conference via a dedicated Web site — www.datamonitor.com/cop15 — have delivered an austere assessment of Europe's "failed" environmental policy and claim Copenhagen must revive the EU promise of a strong market-based solution to climate change.
Harsh Realities
The stalemate between rich and developing countries over who should fund the shift to a green global economy means a final agreement on a new, credible and meaningful framework for combating climate change is unlikely to be reached at Copenhagen. Instead, Datamonitor suggests, the conference will forge a rough international understanding to be finalized in the months and years to come.
"Certain developing nations have claimed rich country governments should pledge more funds as they bear historic responsibility for climate change," said Alex Desbarres, senior renewables analyst at Datamonitor and author of the white paper. "However, the notion of the industrialized world parting with billions of dollars of taxpayer money in the midst of a recession for their rapidly rising industrial rivals lacks credibility."
Given the scale of the challenge, the short timeframe at Copenhagen and Western nations' zero-sum approach, it is highly improbable that Copenhagen will resolve the seemingly intractable challenge of financing climate change mitigation in developing countries, Datamonitor said.
A Datamonitor white paper published on the eve of the UN summit warns that attempts to reach a credible deal on the transfer of low-carbon technologies from richer to developing countries may well be thwarted by "zero-sum mindsets" suspicious of burden sharing.Indeed, the whole issue of technology transfer is in danger of being reduced to a footnote at Copenhagen as political leaders grapple to reach a broader, headline-grabbing deal on emission reductions, Datamonitor writes. Fierce Western opposition and time pressures mean the billion-dollar question of who will bankroll the transition to clean renewable energy is likely to go unresolved.
Datamonitor energy analysts, who will be tracking developments during the two-week conference via a dedicated Web site — www.datamonitor.com/cop15 — have delivered an austere assessment of Europe's "failed" environmental policy and claim Copenhagen must revive the EU promise of a strong market-based solution to climate change.
Harsh Realities
The stalemate between rich and developing countries over who should fund the shift to a green global economy means a final agreement on a new, credible and meaningful framework for combating climate change is unlikely to be reached at Copenhagen. Instead, Datamonitor suggests, the conference will forge a rough international understanding to be finalized in the months and years to come.
"Certain developing nations have claimed rich country governments should pledge more funds as they bear historic responsibility for climate change," said Alex Desbarres, senior renewables analyst at Datamonitor and author of the white paper. "However, the notion of the industrialized world parting with billions of dollars of taxpayer money in the midst of a recession for their rapidly rising industrial rivals lacks credibility."
Given the scale of the challenge, the short timeframe at Copenhagen and Western nations' zero-sum approach, it is highly improbable that Copenhagen will resolve the seemingly intractable challenge of financing climate change mitigation in developing countries, Datamonitor said.
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