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Risks to Global Growth Seen Increasing as U.S. Economy Stumbles, Key Countries Slow
Dollar decline, U.S. export growth seen continuing; China, India and Mexico likely to see slowdowns, Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI projects
Arlington, VA — January 28, 2008 — Mounting concerns over the U.S. economic outlook, along with evidence of slowing in other key countries, suggest that 2008 will be a volatile and uncertain year for the global economy, according to a new report from the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI.
In MAPI's "Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Exports, Global Growth and the Dollar: First Quarter 2008 through Fourth Quarter 2009," economist Cliff Waldman observes that recent housing, manufacturing and job growth data, which indicate that the U.S. economy may have lapsed into a recession, along with the continued crisis in global credit markets, record high oil prices and emerging global inflation, all loom as risks to the world economy.
"U.S. weakness has a negative impact on the export prospects of many key countries that depend on external demand for growth," Waldman said.
At present, exports may, however, provide a bit of good news for the United States. During 2008 the positive impact of dollar depreciation is expected to partially offset the negative impact of slower growth. The report projects a rise in the annual growth of total U.S. goods and services exports, from 7.7 percent during 2007 to 8.7 percent during 2008, and to 9.2 percent in 2009.
In MAPI's "Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Exports, Global Growth and the Dollar: First Quarter 2008 through Fourth Quarter 2009," economist Cliff Waldman observes that recent housing, manufacturing and job growth data, which indicate that the U.S. economy may have lapsed into a recession, along with the continued crisis in global credit markets, record high oil prices and emerging global inflation, all loom as risks to the world economy.
"U.S. weakness has a negative impact on the export prospects of many key countries that depend on external demand for growth," Waldman said.
At present, exports may, however, provide a bit of good news for the United States. During 2008 the positive impact of dollar depreciation is expected to partially offset the negative impact of slower growth. The report projects a rise in the annual growth of total U.S. goods and services exports, from 7.7 percent during 2007 to 8.7 percent during 2008, and to 9.2 percent in 2009.
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